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USDA data seen as bearish for corn, bullish beans

Agriculture.com Staff 08/12/2008 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Tuesday released crop production numbers that are seen as bearish to the CBOT corn market, and bullish for soybeans.

The report is seen as the most important report of the year, because it includes data taken from the first field surveys of the current crop season.

For corn, USDA estimated 2008-09 production at 12.88 billion bushels, above its July estimate of 11.715 billion bushels, and above the analysts average trade estimate of 11.962 billion.

Some traders are calling corn to open down 10-12 cents, soybeans up 5-7 cents, and wheat up 2-4 cents on Tuesday.

USDA's corn yield estimate is set at 155 bushels per acre, above its previous estimate of 148.4 bushels per acre, and at the top end of the average analysts trade estimate of 152.3

Matt Pierce, a CBOT floor trader with Futures International LLC, says the USDA's corn yield of 155 bushels per acre is the big news in this report.

"Shocking yield in corn at 155, the USDA hedged its bets by increasing feed, seed and ethanol. Ending stocks are over 1.0 billion, that is bearish for corn," Pierce says.

USDA pegged 2008-09 U.S. soybean production at 2.973 billion bushels, below its July estimate of 3.000 billion bushels, and below the average analysts estimate of 3.002 billion bushels.

USDA says the 2008-09 U.S. soybean yield is pegged at 40.5 bushels per acre, below its July estimate of 41.6 bushels per acre, and below the trade estimate of 41.63.

"Bean yield lower, lower production but higher harvested acreage. Soybean ending stocks 5 million lower. So, I'm calling soybeans 40 cents higher and corn 10 cents lower then bouncing this morning," Pierce says.

For All Wheat, USDA estimates the 2008-09 U.S. production at 2.462 billion, within range of its July estimate of 2.461 billion bushels.

USDA estimated U.S. 2007-08 corn ending stocks at 1.576 billion bushels, lower than analysts estimates of 1.599 billion, and lower than USDA's previous estimate of 1.598.

USDA pegged the 2008-09 corn ending stocks at 1.133 billion bushels, compared to USDA's previous estimate of 833 million, and the analyst estimate of 991 million.

For soybeans, USDA estimated 2007-08 U.S. soybean carryout at 135 million bushels, up 10.0 million from its July estimate. USDA estimated 2008-09 U.S. soybean carryout at 135 million, down 5.0 million bushels from its July estimate.

USDA, in its report, estimated U.S. 2008-09 wheat carryout at 574 million bushels, higher than its July estimate of 537 million bushels.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Tuesday released crop production numbers that are seen as bearish to the CBOT corn market, and bullish for soybeans.

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