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USDA data seen as bearish for corn market

Agriculture.com Staff 07/11/2008 @ 6:41am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA, in its July Supply/Demand report Friday, released bearish data for the corn market and neutral data for soybeans, traders say.

"The USDA report is bearish for corn because the carryout numbers were raised not lowered from the June report. But, the numbers were right in line with trade expectations for soybeans. So, early calls should be based off of overnight trading," one CBOT floor trader says.

Some traders have early calls with corn up 5-7 cents, soybeans up 12-18, and wheat up 3-5. However, these higher calls are based more on a higher overnight, and sharply higher crude oil.

The market has its eye on the U.S. corn and soybean carryout estimates this morning. These numbers represent what the government thinks will be leftover when exports, ethanol usage, feed usage, etc are figured in.

For soybeans, the USDA Friday estimated the U.S. 2007-08 soybean carryout at 125 million bushels compared to the average analyst estimates of 123 million bushels, and USDA's June estimate of 125 million.

For 2008-2009, USDA estimated U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels, vs. its June estimate of 175 million bushels, and the average trade estimate of 139 million bushels.

To achieve the 140 million bushel carryout, the USDA lowered soybean crush estimates by 10 million bushels, exports by 50 million, and usage by 67 million bushels.

For corn, the USDA estimated the U.S. 2007-08 carryout at 1.598 billion bushels, vs. its June estimate of 1.433 billion bushels, and the average trade estimate of 1.514 billion. For 2008-09, the USDA's corn carryout is pegged at 833 million bushels, vs. its June estimate of 673 million bushels, and the average trade estimate of 820 million bushels.

For wheat, USDA estimates the 2008-09 carryout at 537 million bushels, compared to an average trade estimate of 538 million bushels, and USDA's June estimate of 487 million. For 2007-08, USDA estimates the U.S. wheat carryout at 306 million bushels.

On Friday, USDA released a new 2008-09 U.S. All wheat production estimate of 2.461 billion bushels, slightly below the average trade estimate of 2.478 billion.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA, in its July Supply/Demand report Friday, released bearish data for the corn market and neutral data for soybeans, traders say.

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