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USDA data seen bearish for corn market

Agriculture.com Staff 06/30/2008 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Monday released U.S. 2008 acreage estimates that are considered to be bearish for Monday's corn market trade.

For corn, USDA estimates U.S. 2008 acres at 87.327 million, above its March estimate of 86.014 million acres, and above the average analysts estimate of 85.321 million.

For soybeans, USDA estimated U.S. 2008 acreage at 74.5 millon, above its March estimate of 74.793, and in-line with the average trade estimate of 74.203 million.

USDA sees 2008 All Wheat acreage at 63.4 million, within the range of its March estimate of 63.803 million.

James Bower, Bower Trading Inc., says the report is negative corn, and neutral to bearish for soybeans.

"The market will view this report as bearish for corn, and soybeans will be dragged down with the corn market," Bower says.

Scott Stewart, Stewart Peterson Co., says that overall the USDA numbers are not out of line, and weather will trump the report quickly.

"There are no surprises here. You can crunch these numbers all day long, but the market is going to watch the weather," Stewart says.

Bryan Doherty, a market analyst with Stewart Peterson, says the report is not a big bull or big bear.

"If the market was looking for a big bull it didn't get one," Doherty says. For soybeans, the market is struggling to find any positive news. I think we'll be soft on the open."

Meanwhile, the market is interested in USDA's estimate of 2008 harvested acres. On Monday, USDA estimated 2008 corn harvested acres 9% lower compared to 2007. For soybeans, the USDA raised 2008 harvested acres by 15% over last year.

"Illinois' corn harvested acreage was dropped 5% vs. last year, that is significant," Stewart says. "These are very important acres to the final U.S. yield each year. A few bushels in Illinois makes up for a lot of acres lost in South Carolina or somewhere. So, to lose this much Illinois corn would impact the market."

On Monday, the USDA estimated 2008 U.S. corn stocks at 4.03 billion bushels, up 14% from 2007. For soybeans, USDA estimates quarterly stocks at 676 million bushels, down 38% from a year ago.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture Online)--USDA Monday released U.S. 2008 acreage estimates that are considered to be bearish for Monday's corn market trade.

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