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USDA data to produce fireworks for corn market

Agriculture.com Staff 06/10/2010 @ 6:40am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--As corn stocks fall, China's demand is starting to show up on the balance sheets, according to Thursday's USDA June Supply/Demand report.

As a result, the CME Group floor traders call corn up 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher and wheat mixed.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC floor trader, says the report is all about corn. "Nothing too exciting but the corn new crop carryout is interesting."

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co., says the report is certainly bullish for the corn market. "Old crop corn, down 135 mil/bu on carryout. They (USDA) decreased feed usage by 25 million, but cranked up the ethanol consumption by 150 million bushels. Corn for food also increased 10 million bushels for a net reduction of 135 million bushels."

Ward adds, "The new crop corn 2010/2011 ethanol consumption is up 100 million from 4.6 bil to 4.7 billion bushels. Again, even more bullishness for corn."

U.S. CARRYOUT

For corn, the USDA estimates 2009-10 carryout at 1.603 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.724 billion bushels, and its May estimate of 1.738. For new crop (2010-11), the U.S. corn carryout is pegged at 1.573 billion bushels) vs. the average trade estimate of 1.831 billion bushels, and the USDA's May estimate of 1.818.

In its report, the USDA estimated U.S. 2009-10 soybean carryout at 185 million bushels compared to the average trade estimate of 184 million and the USDA's May estimate of 190 million. For 2010-11, USDA pegged the carryout at 360 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 359 million bushels and the government's May estimate of 365 million bushels.

For U.S. wheat, the USDA estimates the 2009-10 carryout at 940 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 947 million bushels and the May estimate of 950 million. For new-crop (2010-11), the USDA's carryout number is 991 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 987 million and the USDA's May estimate of 997 million.

WHEAT PRODUCTION

The U.S. 2010-11 winter wheat crop is estimated at 1.482 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.453 billion bushels and the 2009 production of 1.523 billion.

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--As corn stocks fall, China's demand is starting to show up on the balance sheets, according to Thursday's USDA June Supply/Demand report.

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