Home / Markets / Markets Analysis / Corn market / USDA hog data seen as bearish

USDA hog data seen as bearish

Agriculture.com Staff 09/29/2008 @ 9:15am

Lean Hog Commentary: Hogs and Pig will be interpreted as mildly bearish for futures on Monday. This quarterly report gives the trade an update on the number of hogs currently alive and gives us estimates as to when they will finish out. It also estimates hog producer's future production intentions. Most numbers were very close to the average guess. From the numbers USDA implied there will be a few more numbers hitting the December and January time frame than the trade expected. We are calling December and February futures to be down 50 cents Monday.

Commitment of Traders: Through Tuesday's close commodity trading funds (the normal long and short speculators) sold 1,661 contracts from the previous Tuesday. This is four weeks in a row of liquidation. Index funds, long only, liquidated 3,665 contracts of their net long positions. This is six weeks in a row of liquidation. News that commodity trading funds and index funds both were still selling is bearish to lean hog futures.

Lean Hog Technical Commentary: The short term trend is now sideways.

Vital Technical Indicator: Next projected major turn day for lean hogs is October 14.

Trade Idea(s): Sell 1 December 6675, risk 6772, objective 6450.

Option Strategy(s): Sold 1 December $72 call at $2.20. Settled at $1.42.

Lean Hog Commentary: Hogs and Pig will be interpreted as mildly bearish for futures on Monday. This quarterly report gives the trade an update on the number of hogs currently alive and gives us estimates as to when they will finish out. It also estimates hog producer's future production intentions. Most numbers were very close to the average guess. From the numbers USDA implied there will be a few more numbers hitting the December and January time frame than the trade expected. We are calling December and February futures to be down 50 cents Monday.

CancelPost Comment
MORE FROM AGRICULTURE.COM STAFF more +

Farm and ranch risk management resources By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Government resources USDA Risk Management Agency Download free insurance program and…

Major types of crop insurance policies By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Crop insurance for major field crops comes in two types: yield-based coverage that pays an…

Marketing 101 - Are options the right tool… By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am "If you are looking for a low risk way to protect yourself against prices moving either higher or…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Improving Soil Health