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Bearish USDA WASDE data

04/08/2011 @ 6:47am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released bearish carryout stocks Friday, leaving most of the numbers unchanged from previous estimates, creating expectations for lower grain and soybean markets.

Early calls for corn are 10-15 cents lower, soybeans 20-25 cents lower, and wheat to follow lower.

in its April Supply/Demand Report, the USDA estimates the 2010-11 U.S. soybean carryout at 140 million bushels, compared to a trade average expectation of 137 million and the government's March estimate of 140 million bushels.

For corn, the USDA estimates 2010-11 ending stocks at 675 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 595 million and the USDA's previous estimate of 675 million.

USDA sees the 2010-11 U.S. wheat carryout at 839 million bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 861 million and the March USDA estimate of 843 million bushels.


World Carryover

The 2010-11 world corn carryover is estimated at 122.4 million metric tons, compared to the USDA's March estimate of 123.1 million metric tons.

For soybeans, the USDA sees 2010-11 world carryover at 60.9 million metric tons, vs. the March estimate of 58.3 million metric tons. In its report, the USDA pegged the world 2010-11 wheat carryover at 182.4 million metric tons compared to its March estimate of 181.9 million metric tons.

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior grain analyst, says the report will create profit-taking Friday. 

"It's a yawner. The corn and bean carryouts were left unchanged. Leaving corn exports unchanged was a surprise, after eight weeks of surprisingly large weekly sales. Ethanol usage went up. No surprise they moved bean exports a little lower, as China is doing more south American business now. Wheat ending stocks moved lower was against pre-report trade estimates, but large ending stocks make it a non-issue," Hannagan says.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Company grain analyst, says the report is comical. "How do you get a grain stocks report that shows significantly less corn/soy on-hand, as of March 1st, and then carryouts don't change?"

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