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Big stock moves 'the norm'

04/18/2012 @ 8:16am

Big, daily swings in the market are becoming commonplace again. That could be a tell-tale sign foreshadowing a tumultuous future for the stock market's 2012 rally.

The Dow notched another triple-digit gain yesterday, surging 194 points and moving back above 13000. It was the blue-chip index's fifth triple-digit move in the last seven sessions.

Such large one-day moves -- which were nearly nonexistent in the first quarter -- have returned over the past few weeks. The recent action is bringing back memories of the immense volatility in 2011, when huge swings occurred on a regular basis.

For investors, that is not a good sign. The "easy gains" from last quarter are clearly over.

The Dow has moved by 100 points or more on an intraday basis in ten of the 11 trading days this month. There were only nine such days in each of the previous two months.

Big one-day rallies are nice. But they could just as easily be followed by big down moves. That's why investors shouldn't get too comfortable after yesterday's sharp move.

IBM is a great example of this phenomenon. The stock climbed 2.3% during yesterday's regular trading session, adding almost 36 points, or about 18%, of the price-weighted Dow's 194-point advance.

But after the close, Big Blue's first-quarter results featured disappointing revenue. Investors punished the stock in after-hours trading.

Based on where IBM is trading after hours, it could open today's session down 2.4%, bringing a 37-point drag on the Dow. Intel's 2.9% after-hours drop after its quarterly results could add another six-point drag on blue chips. Combined, that's 43 points that could get lopped off the Dow. And we haven't even mentioned the other 28 components.

Analysts typically say markets function at their best when they slowly trickle higher, as was the case in the first quarter. While the Dow and S&P 500 registered their best first quarters since 1998, the gains were essentially spread out over the course of the quarter without many big swings one way or the other.

By contrast, markets that whip around are more susceptible to sharp moves lower, as was the case in the second half of 2011 when investors fretted over Europe's problems and a double-dip recession in the U.S.

Another big day of earnings is on tap, with Dow component American Express as well as Yum Brands, BlackRock and Qualcomm highlighting some of the big companies scheduled to report.

Morning MarketBeat Daily Factoid: On this day last year, S&P lowered its long-term outlook on U.S. government debt to "negative" from "stable." The move set the stage for the eventual credit downgrade over the summer that rocked markets and caused some of the most volatile daily swings in stock-market history.

-Steven Russolillo and John Shipman

Stocks to Watch

Yahoo shares rose 3.4% in preopen activity, according to FactSet Resarch. The company late Tuesday surprised Wall Street with a 28% earnings gain for the first quarter and new Chief Executive Scott Thompson announced plans to close more than 50 properties and focus the Web pioneer on its "core" businesses.

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