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Crop weather market rallies

05/09/2013 @ 8:36am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The CME Group corn, soybean and wheat markets used unusual crop-weather to finish higher Thursday.

The July futures corn contract closed 16 cents higher at $6.48. New-crop Dec. futures finished 9 cents higher at $5.41. The July soybean futures contract ended 18 cents higher at $14.08, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 4 cents higher at $12.19. July wheat futures finished 17 cents higher at $7.23 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $5.60 per short ton higher at $413.20. The July soyoil futures ended $0.40 higher at $49.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.40 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag analyst, says that tightness in old crop soybean supplies is what is driving soybean prices higher, especially the May contract with no deliveries yet.  

"U.S. soybean prices keep going up and South American prices keep going down.  At some point, SAM beans may be imported into the US and that will finally push US prices lower.  But that and perhaps only that will finally push the soybeans lower," Grabanski says.
Grabanski adds, "It might be that the expectations that planting progress will somehow "catch up" to normal in corn is a misnomer.  But for now, that seems to be what the market believes. Not sure I am convinced yet."
In the meantime, KC HRW wheat crop is going backwards very quickly, he says. "This might be the most bullish market there is right now.  We are almost assured of having a below average and maybe well below average HRW wheat crop. Meanwhile, the late development of winter wheat might means less double crop soybeans - also supporting soybeans" Grabanski says. 

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