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The end of 7:30am USDA reports

12/14/2012 @ 11:00am

Well, the market has endured the last 7:30 a.m. USDA crop report.  Plus analysts have combed through the last major data set of the year.  Now what?

Many characterize the expectations for the next few weeks as drifting, low volume trade.  It almost seems like traders should be able to turn off the screens and enjoy the holidays.  But drifting trade can mean grinding lower almost every day, as the corn and wheat markets have done this week.  Or it can be moving higher, like soybean meal.  Smaller pieces of data, such as export sales or ethanol grind can still be market movers.  Or, the weather forecasts for South America could cause bullish or bearish moves in the soy complex.  Unfortunately, for many, shutting off the screen is not an option! 

The next critical day on the calendar is the January crop report, due Friday, January 11th.  The report is so important to the market, it is hard to imagine that there will not be a surprise somewhere in the numbers!  

The data will include the final crop sizes for corn and soybeans.  Also released will be the first quarter Grain Stocks report, with data as of December 1st.  The key will be corn stocks, as the market will get a sense of feed use.  There will be updated supply/demand reports as well.  

These reports will all be issued at a new time --11 a.m. CST.  Like the past few months, the markets will trade through the report release.  Unlike the past months, the time to trade the information will only be 3 hours, instead of 6 hours.  Different trading patterns could result.  

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The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial.  You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation. 

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