Keeping a good market down
Somewhere in an earlier life I was exposed to the phrase “You can’t keep a good man down”. I am not sure where it came from, but it seems as if it could apply to the current soybean and corn markets. Long term seasonal charts show that corn futures should be in a gradual long term downtrend. Instead, exactly the opposite is happening. This week, December futures made new highs for the move. After a disastrous day on Thursday, today the market is gaining back most of what it lost yesterday.
Charts show action in the corn market to be a continuation of the uptrend that has been in place for several months. Soybean futures broke out of a trading range that had been in place for most of 2011. Gapping higher after such a firmly established trading range has been in place makes me optimistic that yesterday’s action was a correction, not a hint of things to come. Nonetheless, the long term charts show a tendency for soybean prices to fall after the September Crop Report which is released on September 12. For those wanting to make sales of new crop soybeans, next Friday is the date I focus on to get it done.
There continues to be a premium for delivery of corn for the first half of September. For those who have some early corn and the means to dry it, there is an 18 cent premium here in eastern Nebraska for being early. In the days when I owned my own harvesting equipment, I took advantage of this premium to pick up a few cents and get some corn harvested before the soybeans were ready. I know of only one farmer in my area who uses this strategy. He started harvest yesterday.
Scouting my corn fields yesterday, I discovered that a 102-day hybrid was black layered and could be harvested. However, the 114 day number planted as a refuge is not black layered yet. My soybeans are 3.7 maturity and showing no signs of turning yellow. The 2.25 inches of rain early this week should be ideal for finishing off the pod-filling process. We should have some of the highest soybean yields in history, notwithstanding 12 acres of mine that were destroyed by the flood. The river has dropped to the point of being only two feet over flood stage. I hope that the field will be dry enough that I can run the disk over it before the ground freezes after harvest.
If I wanted to I could spend all of my time attending field days and shows. This week is the Nebraska State Fair. Next week is our local harvest festival. It was called the Kass Kounty King Korn Karnival, until the politically correct busy bodies got involved. For me it will always be KKKKK. The following week, September 13, 14 and 15 is Husker Harvest Days. I will be on the Market Journal program at 1:00 A.M. on Thursday. By the time that event is over I will be anxious for harvest to begin!