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Market Eyes Monday's Planting Progress Report

05/11/2014 @ 4:40pm

Friday's report turned out slightly bullish for old crop compared to expectations and also slightly bearish for new crop. At first, it was tough to tell which side was going to win out. But shortly after the report, it became obvious that selling would take over. While corn had a tough day of selling, both old- and new-crop contracts held their long standing uptrend lines, which showed that traders were quick to sell but they were not willing to take out important support just yet. Perhaps this market is waiting for Monday’s weather and planting progress before breaking important levels. For now, the selling used up the available chart room; we will see if next week decides to make an important move lower or finds reason to bounce back at least to recent resistance.


Old-crop traders:

  • Analysts are looking for old-crop stocks of 1.314 and saw an actual number of 1.146.
  • Old-crop carryout suggests exports have been supportive; yesterday’s did not paint a great picture going forward.
  • July held the long standing uptrend line, which crossed today at 505.

New-crop traders:

  • Analysts were looking for new crop carryout of 1.672 and saw 1.726.
  • Slower planting pace did not result in lower estimated yield than trend line.
  • December hit the long-standing uptrend line of 497 1/4 but did not break it yet.
  • Planting pace could pass 50% on Monday afternoon, that could be what aggressive sellers are waiting for.

Bulls:

  • Today’s pullback to the trend lines in old/new crop corn suggested at least a short-term buy.
  • Bulls might want to focus on the July/Dec spread if planting pace comes in over 50% Monday.

Bears:

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