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More numbers to end the week

02/07/2013 @ 3:44pm

Friday’s supply and demand report (issued at 11 a.m. CST) will not have any new US crop sizes, but will be closely watched to see what the USDA thinks about South American corn and soybean crops.  It is anticipated Argentine corn and soy crops will be lowered slightly.  It is hard to say if there will be much change in the Brazilian crops.  

For the US, the topic of discussion continues to be exports.  Will the USDA need to lower corn and wheat exports yet again? Certainly, it would be appropriate.  Plus those bushels could easily be given to the feed category.  Any other changes should be minor.  

For data geeks, there will be a set of numbers issued on Monday casually referred to as the Baseline Projections.  The USDA, back in November, compiled a set of forecasts for the next 10 years—acreage, crop size, use, etc.  Needless to say, there’s never a drought or other hiccup in the numbers.  The market should focus more on data released during the Outlook Forum February 21st and 22nd.  The data presented during the meeting, while not based on any sort of farmer survey, will at least be more up-to-date.      

Besides the poor state of corn exports, the ethanol industry has also attracted chatter, with stories of ethanol plants closing or slowing production.  With this week’s sharply lower prices, the conversation has changed.  Several ethanol plants are now bidding for corn and ramping back up production.  


The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial.  You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation. 

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