Mostly lower farm markets

06/12/2013 @ 8:38am

DES MOINES, Iowa ( to the USDA/WASDE Report Wednesday raising U.S. stockpiles and leaving U.S. acreage estimates unchanged, the CME Group corn, soybean, and wheat markets settled mostly lower.

The July futures corn contract settled 8 cents lower at $6.51. New-crop December futures finished 13 cents lower at $5.37. The July soybean futures contract ended 1 cent higher at $15.40; new-crop November soybeans settled 12 cents lower at $13.14. July wheat futures closed 13 cents lower at $6.83 per bushel. The July soymeal futures settled $2.00 per short ton lower at $461.40. The July soyoil futures close 7 cents higher at $48.11.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is 46 cents per barrel higher, the dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 94 points lower.

Steve Kahler, chief operating officer at Teucrium Trading, LLC, says today's WASDE report made minimal changes in wheat, corn, and soybeans. "Most in the trade expected a 1 million to 2 million planted acreage reduction for corn, but the USDA left previous projections unchanged at 97.3 million acres," he says.   

The trade will focus on future acreage estimates by the USDA because of delayed spring planting, Kahler says.  

"A 1.5-bushel-per-acre reduction in corn yield was reflected in slightly lower ending stocks with current projections large year on year supply growth. Old-crop corn and soybean supply remain relatively tight, and the trade will remain focused on summer weather and the pace at which the corn and soybean crops mature, thus impacting the timing of the first new crop supply. World wheat production realized slight reductions in the Black Sea region but still leaves the world with a large enough wheat crop to satisfy demand," he says.

All in all, not a major market mover. Dig through numbers today, and move back to weather maps tomorrow. 

The data should send bearish ripples through the market in the short-term on the USDA’s reluctance to adjust corn acreage down given the planting delays. Minor adjustments in demand helped to cushion the blow to the downward revision in yield. The open gap on the December corn chart has been filled, and we’d expect the low of 512 to hold as the market focuses on the uncertain weather outlook and looks to the June 28 stocks report for direction. 

I think the wheat production is a little higher than expected, and that is the negative. I also am disappointed in cuts in feed use for wheat and corn. The beans old-crop is as expected since there is little USDA can do about cutting ending stocks more.

USDA punted on new-crop until next report. Corn I am kind of figuring out, but even with less yield at the end of the day, USDA expects plenty of corn around. It seems the viewpoint that even with problems, we will have enough here is what is pushing us down rather than any actual comparison in the numbers.

Tim Hannagn, Walsh Trading grain analyst, says the report had nothing stick out, as there were no measurable changes in the numbers. 

"The big funds were looking at corn planted acres and ending stocks. USDA tweaked the yield, production, and ending stocks. The funds believe all is much lower. USDA left all bean numbers unchanged. The USDA is taking planting numbers through June 16 and will make more measurable changes on the June 28 final planted acres report and quarterly stocks report," Hannagan says. 

Tomorrow, the trade comes in and says, "What report? How's the weather?" notes Hannagan. "The weather and its impact on planting and growing is what really changes the situation."