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Pork stocks drop in July, remain high

08/22/2012 @ 3:02pm

Pork inventories held in the nation's freezers as of July 31 were down from the previous month for the third consecutive time, but were still the largest ever for that date, confirming analysts' expectations ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

Pork stocks declined by 46.3 million pounds from the previous month but were up 92.2 million pounds, or 20.3%, from a year ago. The five-year average decline in pork stocks in July was 27.5 million pounds.

Beef stocks fell 13.0 million pounds in the latest month, yet were 40.5 million pounds above the year-ago figure. The five-year average change for beef in July is a gain of about 9.4 million pounds.

While the pork drawdown in July could be viewed as supportive for the market, reflecting another good month of demand, there are concerns about the larger-than-expected slaughters this month, said Rich Nelson, director of research with Allendale Inc.

USDA, in its monthly cold-storage report, said nearly 546.6 million pounds of pork were in freezer warehouses as of July 31, a decrease of 7.8% from the previous month.

Ahead of Wednesday's release, analysts on average expected pork supplies in storage to be 561.8 million pounds, or about 5.1% below the previous month but 23.7% above a year ago.

U.S. pork output in July was up 5.5% from a year ago, estimated Bob Brown, private analyst in Edmond, Okla. July this year had 21 weekdays and four Saturdays, compared with 20 weekdays and five Saturdays in the same month last year.

Beef stocks in July fell 2.8% from the previous month, but were up 9.8% from the same month of 2011. USDA reported 455.7 million pounds in storage. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted inventories from 473.0 million to 486.0 million pounds with an average estimate of 478.0 million.

The USDA reported pork bellies in cold storage at 28.0 million pounds as of July 31, down 21.0 million, or 42.9%, from the previous month and 5.1% below a year ago. Belly stocks typically decline about 16.2 million pounds in July, Mr. Brown said.

Ham stocks rose 4.9% from the previous month, an increase of 7.2 million pounds. That put supplies at 15.0% above the year-ago figure of 134.4 million pounds.

Chicken stocks were up slightly in July to 648.6 million pounds but were down 14.3% from a year ago. The five-year average for frozen chicken in storage as of end-July was 702.6 million pounds.

-Write to Curt Thacker at curt.thacker@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 22, 2012 15:50 ET (19:50 GMT)

DJ USDA Report: Pork Stocks Down From June Yet Record for July->copyright

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