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Rally stymied, CME Group grain markets close mostly lower

08/09/2010 @ 9:50am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--After staging a rally, profit-taking dropped the CME Group grain markets to a mostly lower close Monday.

The Dec corn futures closed 2 cents lower at $4.18. The Nov. soybean contract settled 1 1/2 cents higher at $10.35. The Sep. wheat futures closed 13 1/4 cents lower at $7.12. The Dec. soymeal futures contract ended $1.50 per short ton lower at $294.40, and the Dec. soyoil contract settled 37 points higher at $42.49.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.79 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 47 points.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities Inc. grain analyst, says the markets have realized a major commodity (wheat) has doubled in price the last few weeks.

"Following today's announcement, from Russia's Prime Minister, regarding that country's grain export ban extending past December, the market staged a nice rally. However, reality hit that somewhere in the world a new wheat crop is harvested each day," Roose says.

Roose adds, "The wheat shortage is localized to one country, Russia. Is it really going to affect the whole world, probably not."

Meanwhile, the markets have to digest a lot of new information this week. On Monday, the USDA is expected to release weaker crop conditions in its weekly report. On Thursday, the USDA will release its August U.S. and World Supply/Demand Reports.

"This could be the closest-watched world supply report in five years," Roose says. And based on the latest market action, the report better be bullish."

Dax Wedemeyer, U.S. Commodities Inc. grain analyst, says the weather outlook is beginning to look marke-freindly.

Wedemeyer adds, "The forecast, for the end of August, is looking wamer with above-normal temps and below-normal precipitation. That is also working as a bullish factor. Traders are also positioning themselves ahead of Thursday's USDA report. One thing funds and investors are looking at is that the market, technically, closed supportive Friday. That $4.20 mark is seen as a positive signal."

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