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Ray Grabanski: Profitable 2010 due to FSU drought

Ray Grabanski 08/03/2010 @ 11:00pm President, Progressive Ag www.progressiveag.com

Grains have all rallied to profitable levels again, with corn over $4 futures, 

soybeans over $10 futures, and wheat over $7 futures.  These are profitable 

levels for production of the 2010 crop, especially with the crop looking like 

yields will be above average for nearly all crops.  The US has a windfall this 

year, producing an outstanding crop and getting a good price for it as well.


It is coming at the expense of the FSU counties, who are experiencing perhaps 

their worst drought in a century.  Intense heat is hitting most of the countries 

of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia that is burning up crops and is likely to 

lead to a significant decline in total crop production in these areas.  That has 

already pushed prices up much higher than they were earlier this year, and it 

giving producers a chance to sell in the top third of the last 12 months prices 

right now.


Wheat prices have risen even higher than the top third of the past 12 months 

prices, in fact, they've risen to the highest price since fall of 2008, when 

prices were coming down from the mountaintop of the extreme high prices of the 

2008 crop year.  We are now looking at wheat prices offered for 2011 that will 

attract acres away from corn and other crops!  


That makes it exciting for the corn and soybean market, too, as wheat prices can 

finally attract some acreage away from other crops, instead of the other way 

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