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Ready for new crop numbers

05/09/2013 @ 1:38pm

Tomorrow (Friday), the USDA will publish detailed supply/demand estimates for 13-14.  There will also be the first winter wheat crop estimate, based on surveys.  Wheat should be the US crop that is smaller than last year, given the poor conditions in the HRW belt.

The USDA will also estimate world crop sizes and this could be where it gets very interesting.  Around the world, it would seem that all the principal crops will be larger this year. With larger crops in many different places, will world buyers flock to the US to buy?     

For right now, therefore, the issues remain the same.  The market envisions sharply increased supplies of corn and soybeans will be available to end users this fall.  Although prices have gyrated based on the latest weather forecast, the effects of a very, very slow planting season do not change the statements at the beginning of this paragraph.  The market anticipates the crops will get planted until there is clear evidence to the contrary. 

There are interesting little bullish tidbits in this sea of bearishness.  One is the phenomenal basis levels for spot corn and soybeans. With the premiums in the market (both cash and futures), an end user/processor does not want to be caught with excess inventory.  So they are trying to keep things tight and bidding aggressively when needed.    

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The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial.  You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial situation.   

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