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The September Report is coming

Ray Grabanski 09/08/2011 @ 1:53pm President, Progressive Ag www.progressiveag.com

The Sept. USDA report is coming on Monday, and many are asking whether or not it will contain any surprises like the last report.

Traders will be watching for shockingly low soybean production numbers, and a significant decline in corn yields of over 5 bu/acre.  Based on yield models at the time, the huge drop in corn and soybean yields was unfounded, but the heat recorded during July for the US was enough to make USDA drop significantly both yield numbers.  

Now, as the Sept. report rolls along, typically it follows that the 

direction of the Sept. report yields are along the same lines as August, 

i.e. another drop in production is anticipated.  Some private estimates 

are as low as 140 bu/acre corn and 40 bu/acre soybeans, as it seems these private estimates have competed to see who could drop the yields the most.  

But yet, the yield models based on crop conditions continue to suggest a yield higher than any private estimates, at 156 bu/acre corn and 43 

bu/acre soybeans.  While the yield model numbers show a decline from August 1 of about 0.5 bu/acre soybeans and 2 bu/acre corn, these numbers are still well above the current USDA projections of 153 bu/acre corn and 41.4 bu/acre soybeans.  

Private estimates have weighed in, with the Pro Farmer tour finding a 

decline in corn yield potential with their estimate at 147.9 bu/acre, and 

their soybean estimate showing a hike of 0.4 bu/acre to 41.8 bu/acre.  

Similar numbers have come out of the respected Informa camp, with corn at 151 bu/acre and soybeans at 41.5 bu/acre.  Both suggest a corn decline, but a slight hike in soybean yields as it appears USDA might have 'jumped the gun' on soybean yield declines in the August report.  

Yet, it remains that August was a drier than normal month for much of the country, but actually a cool month for much of the Corn Belt (especially the central and eastern Corn Belt).  Did August do as much crop damage as the warm month of July did? Or, did most of our yield decline in the 2011 potential crop size occur in July?

These are some questions that USDA should answer in their Sept. report.  

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