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Summing Up a Head-Scratcher of a Grain Marketing Week

08/15/2014 @ 12:46pm

Traders end the week the same way they started it, by scratching their heads. Confusion reigned over the WASDE Report that estimated less of an increase in this year's U.S. corn yield than expected, and Friday the Farm Service Agency released preliminary U.S. acreage numbers below what the trade expected.

In both cases this week, the corn market has escaped the negativity from the reports that the soybean market has had to digest. In fact, marketwatchers are now seeing the charts show signs that the corn market is well positioned for a late summer rally.

Meanwhile, the macrofactors have reared their ugly heads. The Ukraine/Russia conflict looked like it was fading to start the week, only to fire up on Friday with Ukraine planning to attack a Russian aid convoy.

Overall, the Midwest weather continues to favor big crops, keeping long-term pressure on grain prices. The hopes for that late-summer rally to catch fire rely on demand and the willingness of the bulls to keep buying. The demand help held up its end of the deal this week. But the bulls seem to come and go.

Floor Talk August 15
Published: 8/15/2014
At 7:35am: Early calls: Corn is seen 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 7-9 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher. Trackers: Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher. Dollar=Lower. Wall Street=Seen higher, with economic data eyed. World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.


OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 15th
Published: 8/15/2014
Good morning. Corn getting a lift here and currently up 4 which will not help with volatility. We are inching towards that area that is right at the straddles that investors have been selling short as well as the strangles that have been sold as well. The 10 year yield is below 2.40% and sits at 2.393% and headed to 2.15%.


Let's Talk Farm Markets
Published: 8/14/2014
This week, I have had a few interesting conversations. I wanted to share some of the thoughts. 1st Conversation: A Floor Trader that owns an Illinois farm: In full disclosure, he told me that his position in the market, right now, is long corn and short soybeans. The floor trader also wanted me ...


Markets Digest WASDE's Aftermath
Published: 8/14/2014
The futures markets have had time to digest the August crop reports and now face another month of trading before the next data point.  There is still much interest in the weather forecast, and rain would be welcome in many parts of the Corn Belt, especially the northwest. The USDA August corn and soybean crop sizes were almost a flip-flop of what was expected.


Depressed Prices Ups Farmer Hedging, CME Says
Published: 8/13/2014
As farm markets tumble, does this cause farmers to use the futures market more or less. Since the USDA's June 30 Crop Production Report, corn prices have fallen 25% and soybean prices 11%. Dave Lehman, CME Group Managing Director of Research and Product Development, says price volatility remains ...


Ohio crop tour results
Published: 8/14/2014
Thanks to Ohio Ag Net from the other site for posting. It looks like 2 different groups did a two day tour. http://ocj.com/2014/08/2014-ohio-crop-tour-i-75-day-1/ http://ocj.com/2014/08/a-recap-of-day-1-of-the-i-71-2014-ohio-crop-tour/ http://ocj.com/2014/08/2014-ohio-crop-tour-i-71-day-2/ http://ocj.com/2014/08/2014-ohio-crop-tour-i-75-day-2-2/.


Fringe acres.
Published: 8/14/2014
Been thinking about FRinge acres and I figured out a couple of things. So One way to define fringe acres would be those areas where the average rainfall is below 30 inches of rain. So I doug out the last year data and found this States with primarily western ties and the majority of their acres under the 30 inch mark raising corn are 18 in number They raise 5.216 billion bu.


Do Big Crops Get Bigger?
Published: 8/12/2014
It seems like almost everyone associated with the market believes the old adage that, "big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller." I think belief in that old saying explains most of why the reaction in the corn futures market today was so small in the face of what should have been very ...


Soybean Conditions Stabilize; Replace Hedges Now -- Analyst
Published: 8/12/2014
Crop conditions showed little change yesterday, with corn conditions unchanged at 73% G/E and soybeans down 1% to 70% G/E. However, the yield models for both rose slightly to 170.5 bushels for corn (up 0.3 bu/acre) and 45.75 bu/acre for soybeans (up 0.07 bu/acre). Crop progress shows that the crop is developing at normal levels or so, with 96% of the corn silking vs. 95% normally, with 54% at the dough stage vs.


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