Home / Markets / Markets Analysis / Corn market / Tim Hannagan: More rain coming

Tim Hannagan: More rain coming

04/21/2011 @ 2:57pm

Spring has really sprung a leak. We're into an identical year, as two years ago, when La Niña brought excessive rains and a record late planting date for corn and beans. Last year was among the earliest planted dates on a dry spring. 

Inclement weather plays with pricing on the futures market. But, it's a long planting and growing season and we're going to have other issues on weather that will have even a greater affect on pricing, such as pollination for corn and pod-setting for beans, when yields are made or lost. 

Last year, everything went in the ground on time, but the rains came excessively late in corn's growing season and cut yields measurably. Two years ago, the heavy planting season rains led to a near perfect growing season and record crops. So, every year has its variances. 

Don't assume rains will last forever. At some point, the planting window will open and prices will fall. For next week, not the case. WX RIS K.com, the weather site, sees a week similar-to-worse than this past week. 

WX RISK. com is forecasting three weather events. The first will hit Friday and Saturday. The second focuses on Sunday and Monday and the third next Thursday and Friday.  

The first system looks to bring up to 1.50 inches of rain, with 70% coverage, over the upper Plains' spring wheat and oat states and the Corn Belt. Also, that same system is seen dropping 4.00-plus inches over the lower Eastern states and southern Delta. Only 25% of the Southwest winter wheat belt will see any rain. 

The second weather system enters the western Corn Belt on Sunday and the entire Midwest Monday, with 75% coverage, up to 2.5 inches of rain, heaviest over Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. In addition, ample amounts over the Delta and upper Plains. 

The third weather system, next Thursday and Friday, isn't as wet but after the Sunday and Monday event, fields will be too soggy when system three enters. 

Some, but not all, weather models suggest a wet start the first week of May, as well. 

The long and short of this is fieldwork and planting is on hold thru the end of next week. Expect Monday's 3 pm Crop Progress Report to show corn, spring wheat and oat plantings well behind the five and ten-year averages with the following Monday report even further behind. This looks to give us a positive start to the futures next week as traders price in planting concerns. 

CancelPost Comment
MORE FROM TIM HANNAGAN more +

Sell on rally! By: 11/17/2011 @ 11:40am Grain price seasonal patterns and monthly trends provide endless opportunities in cash grain…

Fund profit-taking By: 02/17/2011 @ 8:22am Just a note, grain markets are closed Monday for Presidents' Day holiday. Normal hours this…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Improving Soil Health