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Tim Hannagan: Up Monday

Agriculture.com Staff 04/15/2011 @ 3:45pm

Wheat remains very cautious about this weather that lies ahead. Kansas and Colorado could see decent rain over the weekend and again early next week, with Oklahoma and Texas getting at least a small amount. 

Should these next two systems miss, we could push up toward 8.00 again, as crop ratings would suffer further with time running out at month-end for Texas and Oklahoma. If they hit a broad area with rain, $7.00 is next basis May futures. 

Corn crop progress, last Monday, came in at 3% planted, equal our five-year average, and I suspect we will come in about equal the five-year average again on Monday's 3 PM crop progress report. But, the next two reports could fall way behind on planting progress.   WXRISK.COM, the weather site, sees heavy snows over the upper Plains oat, corn and spring wheat states through Saturday and up to 2.00 inches of rain across the Midwest and southern Delta, slowing fieldwork and corn planting. 

Next Tuesday through Thursday sees 70% coverage of rain up to 2.00 inches over the upper Plains and Iowa east to Ohio, smaller amounts in the Delta. The 10-to-15 day outlook is similarly wet. 

Note, corn acreage increases were largely in the Dakotas. That upper Plains area looks to go from heavy snow into the weekend to heavy rains, midweek, to very cold conditions. This all could lead to thoughts of less corn eventually not being planted. 

Look for a higher opening Sunday night and for Monday's day session, before profit-taking into Tuesday. Despite the rain delays, traders remind themselves that it's still early and not to panic. 

We're usually 30 to 35% planted, on corn, by April 30 and by mid-May or around May 12, 55 to 60% planted. Not going to happen this year. Technicals read like this. Many corn support is 7.26. Then 7.20. Resistance is 7.56, and with a close over, next resistance is 7.84. December new crop futures is the new crop contract that sees most strength from planting delays. Support on December futures lies at 6.48. A close under, and 6.26 is next. Resistance is up at 6.60. May beans support is 13.15 with resistance at 13.75. A close over 13.75 and 14.25 is next. May wheat support lies at 7.25 then 7.00. Resistance is up at 8.00.

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Tim Hannagan is a senior grain analyst with PFGBest.com and a weekly contributor for Agriculture.com

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