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Trade targets $4.34 corn price

11/26/2013 @ 8:01am

March CBOT corn futures edged slightly higher Monday, supported by strong export inspections seen in Monday's USDA report. Inspections of exportable U.S. corn in the week through Nov. 14 totaled 30.240 million bushels, which beat analysts' expectations. Also, commitments from overseas importers to purchase U.S. corn since Sept. 1 have more than doubled compared with the same period last year, according to the government.

On the daily chart, for now, the recent gains should be considered merely corrective to the primary downtrend. March corn has been mired in a long-term bear market and is in the midst of a little "backing and filling" after last week's push to a new contract low at $4.20.

The market is approaching 20-day moving average resistance at $4.34 3/4 on Monday. That will be a key ceiling to monitor near term. Since early September, the 20-day moving average has largely capped all counter-trend rally moves.

If March corn bulls muster enough strength to crack the 20-day moving average, it would open the door for additional counter-trend corrective rally move back toward the Nov. 12 high and resistance at $4.49 1/2. Daily momentum is rising from oversold levels, which could keep a firm tone to trade near term.

On the downside, major support lies at $4.20. Minor support lies at $4.27 and then $4.23 1/2.

$6.70 -- the contract high 
$4.31 1/4 -- the 10-day moving average 
$4.34 3/4 -- the 20-day moving average 
$4.43 3/4 -- the 40-day moving average 
$4.20 1/2 -- the contract low

MARCH CBOT WHEAT, combined pit and electronic trading

March CBOT wheat climbed to a slightly higher settlement on Monday, but overall action remained quiet and within recent ranges. Wheat gained amid signs of strong demand. Wheat exports from June 1 through Nov. 14 totaled 16.7 million metric tons, a 45% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to the USDA.

Technically, March wheat has entered a short-term consolidative and corrective phase, following the massive sell-off seen since late October. Daily momentum is rising from oversold levels and the market is mostly correcting via "time" and sideways action as opposed to upward movement. Rallies have been difficult to sustain and initial resistance at the $6.63 zone continues to cap upside probing. That is the key level to watch near term. If gains are seen through $6.63 it would suggest a more substantial counter-trend rally move was unfolding.

The longer term trend remains solidly bearish. But, the market has retreated to just above a zone of major multi-month congestive support and the contract low at $6.47 3/4, hit on Sept. 12. There is a strong zone of support from $6.52-6.47, which could be tough to crack near term.

$9.12 1/4 -- the contract high 
$6.55 3/4 -- the 10-day moving average 
$6.64 -- the 20-day moving average 
$6.82 1/4 -- the 40-day moving average 
$6.47 3/4 -- the contract low

MARCH KC WHEAT, combined pit and electronic trading

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