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USDA data pressure short-lived

07/11/2013 @ 11:50am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The U.S. 2013 average corn yield is holding its own, despite the inclement weather, according to the USDA/WASDE Reports released Thursday.

As a result, the CME Group corn, soybean markets reacted negatively , initially. But, have turned around, since the 11am CT report. At mid-session, corn contracts turned mixed and soybean futures reversed higher Thursday. 

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2013 corn yield at 156.5 bushels per acre equal to its June estimate of 156.5 bushels per acre. 

For soybeans, the USDA estimates the U.S. 2013 soybean yield at 44.5 bushels per acre. This is little changed from its June estimate.

U.S. Grain Carryout

The USDA estimates the U.S. old-crop corn carryout at 729 million bushels vs. its June estimate of 769 million and the average analysts estimate of 722 million. 

For 2013-14, the USDA sees the U.S. new-crop corn carryout at (1.959  billion bushels, compared to its June estimate of 1.949 billion bushels and the average analysts estimate of 1.874 billion.

USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop soybean carryout at 125 million bushels vs. its June estimate of 125 million and the average analyst estimate of 125 million.

For new-crop soybean carryout, the USDA sees the 2013-14 stocks at 295 million bushels v s. its June estimate of 265 million and the average analysts estimate of 270 million bushels.

Trade Reaction

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the report is certainly bearish.

"Bean ending stocks for next year went up, that is bearish.  Corn also a little higher," Scoville says.   

World bean numbers look negative, but not at all negative for corn and wheat, he says. 

"US corn crop a little lower on acres only.  No changes in Arg or Brazil.  All in all, the report is about what I figured it would be, but I got caught looking for more drastic changes," Scoville says.  

Scoville adds, "I think traders were looking for USDA to cut yields because they did last year.  But they have no real reason to do it yet, they might later but not now.  So, that is causing the selling.  We now go back to a weather market, which is relatively ok."

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says the report was largely in line with trade expectations. 

"Severe old crop tightness in both soybeans and corn will likely remain, until harvest of new crop begins; this tightness will linger until late summer because it is unlikely we will see an early start to harvest due to late planting across much of the Corn Belt this past spring," Gilbertie says. 

Estimated new crop exports for corn seem low, given the USDA’s price target range for corn and the current export pace to China for new crop commitments, Gilbertie says. 

"Global wheat supplies are more than adequate, and the projected replenishment of soybean stocks in the coming crop year is much needed. If the new crop corn rebuilds stocks as anticipated, the United States will see its dominance as the world’s major exporter of major grains, led by corn, reasserted," Gilbertie says. 

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