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USDA data reaction is mixed

10/12/2011 @ 9:43am

DES MOINES, Iowa (Agriculture.com)--The U.S. farmer will produce less corn and less soybeans in 2011 than the trade estimates, according to the USDA Wednesday. 

The trade sees the data as slightly friendly. Early calls for the commodities are 3-5 cents higher for corn, 5-10 cents higher for soybeans, and wheat is  expected to follow the floor trend.

In its October Crop Production Report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2011 corn production at 12.433 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 12.492 billion bushels and the government's September estimate of 12.497 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the USDA places the 2011 production at 3.060 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 3.094 billion bushels and the agency's September estimate of 3.085 billion bushels. 


The USDA estimates the U.S. corn yield average at 148.1 bushels per acre, compared to the September estimate of 148.1 bushels per acre. The U.S. 2011 average soybean yield is pegged at 41.5 bushels per acre vs. the trade's average estimate of 42.0 bushels per acre.

U.S. Carryout

The USDA raised the 2011-12 corn stocks on-hand. For corn, the U.S. carryout is estimated at 866 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 795 million bushels and the USDA's September estimate of 672 million bushels.

U.S. soybean carryout is estimated at 160 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 181 million bushels and the government's September number of 165 million bushels.

In its Wednesday morning report, the USDA placed the 2011 wheat carryout at 837 million bushels vs. the trade's average estimate of 747 million bushels and the government's September estimate of 761 million. 

Trade Reaction

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the report is bullish for the soybean market, a little negative longterm to corn and wheat.  

"Production and ending stocks estimates came in below expectations in beans. So, beans could rally pretty strongly early in the day. But, higher-than-expected ending stocks in corn and wheat will hurt prices there today. My calls are higher, maybe 20 or 25 higher, corn perhaps a little higher, maybe 5 cents, and wheat more steady to lower," Scoville says.

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