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USDA data seen slightly friendly

09/10/2010 @ 8:12am

CHICAGO, Illinois (Agriculture.com)--The USDA released slightly friendly crop figures Friday, CME Group floor traders say.

Early calls for corn are 2-3 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat is seen following. 

For 2010 U.S. corn, the USDA estimated production at 13.160 billion bushels, compared to the average analysts estimate of 13.199 billion bushels and the government's August estimate of 13.365. 

For 2010 U.S. soybeans, the USDA pegged production at 3.483 billion bushels, vs. its August estimate of 3.433 billion bushels and a range of analysts guesses between 3.355 to 3.500 billion bushels. 

Tim Hannagan, PFGBest.com senior analyst, says the report is a tough one to call. "One analyst says, "Corn came out bullish with yields at 162.5 well under pre-report estimates of 163.1 and last month of 165.0. This puts production at 13.160 versus last month at 13.365. Soybeans were a little bearish with production over the average estimate by 77 m.b. at  3.483 b.b. Wheat was a little neutral with ending stocks down only 50 m.b. from last month. Plus, USDA left all Russian wheat production estimates unchanged  on the month.  Overall, the numbers are bullish long term, heavy buying prior the report could be met with profit taking."

 Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co., says initially the report looks bearish beans and friendly corn.

"The corn is friendly because the old crop stocks came down to 1.386
billion bushels. A lot of people will overlook this but it equates to
0.8 bushels/acre less corn so it's almost as if the yield is 161.7 bpa
instead of 162.5," Ward says. The yield and carryout for next year for corn are right on the trade estimate. So, it's hard for me to call it there, but I'm thinking friendly tone for corn.

Ward adds, "For soybeans, I didn't find anything real friendly. The yield increased to 44.7
bushels per acre, as the trade thought it would come down. Stocks at 350 million are
safe and it should take some premium out of the bean market."

Wheat came in at 902 million vs. an 877 million estimate. "So, this is a little
negative, but exports were huge for wheat this morning which will
offer some support," Ward says.

"European corn/wheat prices are higher right now which always has an
impact on our prices so that should be supportive today," he says.

U.S. Ending Stocks

In its report, the USDA estimate the 2009-10 corn carryout at 1.386   billion bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 1.412 billion bushels and the USDA's August estimate of 1.426 billion.

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