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USDA/WASDE data friendly

04/10/2012 @ 8:11am

The U.S. and world corn and soybean stocks tighten, and the South American production falls, according to the USDA/WASDE Reports Tuesday.

Corn is seen opening 2-5 cents higher, soybeans are called 10-15 cents higher and wheat 5-7 cents higher, according to CME Group floor traders. The trade thinks the world carryover numbers are bullish.

U.S. Grain Stocks

In its USDA Reports, the government agency estimated the U.S. 2011-12 corn carryout at 801 million bushels, compared to the average trade expectation of 717 million and the March estimate of 801 million bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. 2011-12 stocks estimate is 250 million  bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 246 million and the government's March estimate of 275 million.

The USDA pegs the U.S. 2011-12 wheat carryout at 793 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 796 million bushels and its March estimate of 825 million bushels.

World Production

In its Tuesday report, the USDA put the 2011-12 Argentina corn crop tag 21.5 million metric tons vs. the average trade estimate of 21.5 million metric tons and the government's previous estimate of 22.0 mmt. USDA sees Brazil's 2011-12 corn crop at 62.0 mmt vs. the average trade estimate of 61.8 mmt and the March estimate of 62.0 mmt.

For soybeans, the USDA estimates the 2011-12 Brazil production at 66.0 mmt vs. the average trade expectation of 67.0 mmt and the government's previous estimate of 68.5 mmt.

Argentina's soybean production estimate is pegged at 45.0 mmt vs. the  average trade estimate of 45.3 mmt and the USDA's March estimate of 46.5 mmt.

World Carryover

Perhaps the section of the Reports that the trade finds most bullish is  the World Carryover estimates.

For corn, the USDA sees carryover at 122.7 mmt vs. its March estimate at 124.5 mmt. For soybeans, the world carryover is at 55.5 mmt vs. March's 57.3 mmt. USDA pegged world wheat carryover levels at 206.3 mmt vs. the March 209.6 mmt.

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