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Weather is wildcard, analyst says

Agriculture.com Staff 12/30/2010 @ 3:40pm

Grains close early Friday at 12:00 central time for the New Years Holiday weekend. 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report showed wheat exports were 431,000 metric tons, down 27% from the week prior with no major players like Egypt in for any tonnage. Corn exports fell 17% from the week prior to 756,000 metric tons with key Asian sales at 328,000 metric tons versus 468 the week prior. Soybeans came in at 663,000 metric tons down 20% on the week with China in for 113,000 metric tons versus 637 the week prior  but 161,000 metric ton was sold to an unknown destination. 

We assume unknown is spelled CHINA.. No fret here on declining weekly numbers as they came from last weeks holiday trade with one less export day so lower numbers were expected. We have spent the last four weeks in another weather market matching a long list of weather versus production rallies this past year. 

We started with a poor summer growing season in the US grain belt followed by a dry Canadian wheat grain growing season. Prices just kept inching higher each weather update suggesting further crop declines would continue. Then the La Niña weather pattern brought drought to the European Union nations with huge crop losses from Germany to Russia, who claims they lost 37% of their production. 

Last but not least, Australia closed out the year that's saw wheat production start off lower on drought conditions then destruction from flooding rains at harvest time, leaving up to 50% of their wheat crops suitable only for feeding animals. This further push prices higher. Now,  the new years in need of perfect weather and record yields see South America  weather in the  uncertainty game. 

Brazil the world's second-largest producer exporter of soybeans behind the US continues to see very dry conditions in their southern most bean growing regions. There's been some timely rains, but planted acreage looks to come in lower now that the planting season has ended.

Argentina is the worlds third-largest bean producer exporter and number two on corn are  in the grips of this La Niña Inspired drought.  Soybean planting is ending leaving all the growing season ahead should rains return but corn acres will be far less and early pollination is underway with crop forecasters already cutting planting by 10 to 20% and lower yields unavoidable. Argentina will be through it's key corn yield time by January 20, A dramatic turn in weather is needed now. What's been lacking is panic buying by key world corn users. 

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