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Weekly Market Wrap-up: Low Prices Cure Low Prices

07/25/2014 @ 12:16pm

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Low prices, cure low prices. Meaning once the prices hit a certain low, the buyers of grain step in and scoop up the cheaper product. Interestingly enough, even though corn and soybean prices have fallen 17% and 18% respectively, for the month, demand has picked up but the market seems to be ignoring the sales.

Why? Favorable crop-weather is trumping the strong demand.

For the first half of August, the Midwest weather maps are showing below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

Big yield estimates keep being reported, from private analyst firms.

Next week, the trade will be eying Monday's USDA Crop Progress Report to determine if the crops ratings are surging upward.

At some point, the market will have a tough time ignoring strong demand.


This Week's Marketing Talk and Analysis

A Real Marketing Strategy Needed This Year, Analyst says
Published: 7/25/2014
Not one tool fits all occasions. Cash Sales: If grain prices rally into the winter months, you could utilize cash sales by forward selling or using hedge-to-arrive contracts. Sell Futures: This is a good strategy when prices are low and you believe they could go even lower. A fence strategy is an option strategy in which you purchase a put and sell a call.

SoyRoy: Sell Soybeans Before September Report
Published: 7/25/2014
For most of the recent planting season, there was an abundance of moisture in corn and soybean growing areas. Most farmers have been anticipating a record corn crop. If soybean prices follow the usual pattern, there will be at least one more up and down movement as market participants try to evaluate how much damage is being done to yields.

for anyone holding the 12 and 13 crop unpriced and 14 crop on the way
Published: 7/25/2014
3m ago - last edited 2m ago http://www.loftness.com/GrainLogix/ personally I would have sold it already but thats just me. Message 1 of 1 (11 Views)  

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 25th
Published: 7/25/2014
Good morning. Corn down 3, beans down 11 and wheat unchanged. Soybean basis getting hit this moring and rains falling NW midwest (much needed area) putting pressure on corn and soybeans. The 10 year is at, yep, you guessed it - 2.50%. The stock market is a little lower after Amazon disappointed on its earnings this morning. Gold is up $2.06 to $1395.79 while oil is a ittle easier to $101.69 down .38 cents.

Floor Talk July 25
Published: 7/25/2014
At 7:15am: Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 12-14 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Trackers: Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower. Brent Crude Oil=$0.01 per barrel higher. Wall Street=Seen lower as Amazon disappoints on earnings. World Markets=Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

Harvest Price Central Iowa
Published: 7/25/2014
Which will it be? http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf $5.20/bu 158 avg 15% $3.85/bu 166 avg 64% $3.35/bu 172 avg 21% Do you think the low is in or do we have a way to fall yet?

A Clue from (14/15) sales/exports, perhaps
Published: 7/24/2014
from fas: SOYBEANS : 07/10 577.9 0.0 16.9 12283.6 : 07/17 2456.1 0.0 5.0 14734.7 :YR AGO 665.5 0.0 0.3 13969.2 SOYBEAN CAKE & : 07/10 89.6 0.0 0.0 2608.1 MEAL : 07/17 348.9 0.0 0.0 2957.0 :YR AGO 145.6 0.0 0.0 1065.4

Same Market Story, Different Market Week
Published: 7/24/2014
 More estimates of a record corn crop hit the news wire, weather forecasts do not contain a massive heat dome and speculative liquidation/selling continues.  This week, demand surfaced for beans, with export sales announcements most every morning.  This sales volume, combined with a drier (but not hot) forecast, has caused a price bump in the past two days.

NOAA Star Sat images
Published: 7/23/2014
green-ness and relative veg health for week 29. Top to bottom: 1-green 2014, 2-green 2013, 3-current vegetation health compared to last week, 4-veg health now relative to week 29 last yr, 5-Brazil veg health relative to same time last year.

Quote of the year
Published: 7/23/2014
Quote of the year "But i will admit that with the early season conditions i was expecting a bit more." Enough said


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