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Weekly Market Wrap-Up: Weather Bears Rule

Jeff Caldwell 08/01/2014 @ 1:16pm Multimedia Editor for Agriculture.com and Successful Farming magazine.

It's been a rough week for the grain markets. Things started out on a high note earlier in the week with news of fairly solid export demand. But that didn't stick around long. Mother Nature's just been wielding too sharp an axe for any factor other than the near-perfect crop weather to exert dominance over the trade.

Speculation that the trend could be shifting couldn't even weaken the weather bears' grip. Though temperatures remain lower than normal, there's been little to no rain in much of the Corn Belt in the last few weeks. Ordinarily, that would start to put the hurt on the corn and soybean crops, but those lower temperatures are preventing that from happening . . . so far.

Then there was news this week that expectations for the next few weeks are similar in South America. Now, the trade's attention on the weather -- in the U.S. and abroad -- may only sharpen in the near future. And the way the forecast looks now, analysts say there's little hope for the bulls.

Looking ahead to the next week, don't take your eye off the weather ball, analysts say. "With this week's decline in yield potential, it indicates that 2014 could go down as an average yield year if conditions continue to decline into harvest. So weather in August will determine if we finish 2014 at record-large yields or just at average yields," market analyst Ray Grabanski said this week. "A crop disaster at this point is probably not possible since the crop is too highly rated for it to turn out badly at this point. With weather forecasts calling for cool and wet conditions in the extended forecast, it's hard to get too bullish just yet."

Don't get too depressed yet, though . . . new farm program policies could help make up for income losses that are likely based on current market prices.

Top-notch Crop Weather & Tumbling Grain Markets
Published: July 30, 2014
Top-notch Crop Weather & Tumbling Grain… By:  The grain trade's hurting for any piece of bullish news as favorable crop weather dominates. It's been a week of near-perfect crop weather in the Corn Belt, and that's driving the bears to run through the grain markets. With no real end in sight to the unseasonably mild temperatures, the market's spent the week looking for support.

MT Peak Corn Cruise
Published: August 1, 2014
MT you said last week you were ready to load the boat. All aboard, "dry MT forecast". Just a boat safety check, drain plugs in place and tighten, life perservers and radio check.

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 1st
Published: August 1, 2014
Good morning. That is what the talking heads will be waxing on about all day today. Now they know what it is like to trade corn. Anyway, grains quiet overnight, corn unchanged to down 1, soybeans down 8 and wheat finding its feet up 3. International Grain Council raises corn production numbers slightly. Gold up $2.28 to $1284.83.

Severe Weather forecast For August
Published: August 1, 2014
this is from UK weather forecaster Piers Corbyn web site ..this guy has a good track record see http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews14No33.pdf for his last forecast which was pretty accurate just wondering what effect it would have on the corn and soybean crop at this stage should it come to fruition .

Crop Revenue Help from the Fed...With a Catch
Published: July 31, 2014
It's been about 4 years since corn and soybeans were as low as they are right now, and it's got crop income expectations well into the red for this year barring some kind of crop weather catastrophe in the coming weeks. First, crop insurance: Revenue policies that take into account both yield and price could pay this year -- soon, in fact -- if you've paid for a high enough coverage level.

THINGS BETTER IN 2015
Published: July 31, 2014
Was looking at things on the boards. I'm hearing alot about next year BUT PRICES.ARE BETTER FOR NEXT YEAR THAN NOW (except soybeans) At the local elevator today's wheat is 5.81......harvest of next year $6.05 Corn. 3.35 for this fall Harvest of 2015 $3.69 Beans roughly $2/bu lower next year. Gentleman ....start your spreedsheets.

If the rains come as advertised
Published: July 30, 2014
With the change in the jet stream. Ya all are gonna blame me for killen the bean prices like the corn price. No gap up so technically it was just a dcb. Corn will be in the 177-180 national average. And beans in the 45-47 average. If you haven't sold yet it's your own fault.

Will Corn & Soybean Yield Models Continue Decline?
Published: July 29, 2014
This week showed the first yield model declines in many weeks as corn and soybeans are starting to get stressed in the corn belt from lack of rain. If that 8-14 day forecast verifies and the wetter forecast arrives, grains will have further to go down as pollination of corn and bloom of soybeans ...

Will Crop Insurance Make Payments in 2014?
Published: July 29, 2014
In Illinois, crop insurance payments on corn likely will be lower in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013.  Crop insurance payments in 2014 likely will not be large for soybeans.  For both corn and soybeans, harvest prices will be lower than projected prices.  However, above average yields likely will ...

Risk Management, Farm Policy Critical During Farm Economy Slump
Published: July 29, 2014
Now that the well-foreshadowed profit downturn for grain farmers has arrived, attention's turned to ways to keep it from gouging your bottom line too much. "The poll reflects the reality that grain commodity prices are lower compared to last year, which will likely have some negative impact on ...


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