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Allendale Yield Estimates Put Soybeans Under Value by $1

Beans ended the week on a positive note as they traded at the highest price of the week today. For the week, the November gained 5¢ while trading a 20½¢ range. Allendale released the results of its 28th annual nationwide producer yield survey today. This is a state-by-state survey, based on producer calculated yields in 32 states.

The surveys gave us the numbers needed to project yields in the top 12 states and covers 83% of soybean production. We estimate this year’s national bean yield at 47.1 bushels per acre with a total production estimate at 4.179 bb. In August, the USDA estimated the national crop at 49.4 b/a with production at 4.381 bb. Other analysts have started submitting estimates to newswires for the coming September 10 supply/demand report.

INTL FC Stone estimated the national Soybean yield at 49.8. This was up from their August estimate of 47.7. They put total production at 4.418 bb. Informa estimated the national soybean yield at 49.4, which was raised from its August estimate of 47.3.

There still is no frost or freeze in the near-term forecast, but with several forecasters hinting at increased chances for a late September frost/freeze event, traders will be watching to see any hint of a cold snap that could bring an early close to the growing season. Our survey results suggest that this crop is running behind pace and an early frost could be devastating. We anticipate that the market will continue to move in a choppy sideways range over the near term as market participants debate the size and demand for the upcoming crop. Major support is at the $9.07 level with resistance at the $9.60 area basis the November contract.

If our survey results are accurate, soybeans are easily $1 under value. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day Holiday. Globex will begin trading at its regular 7:00 PM CT Monday night.

 

Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc. 
815/578-6161

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