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Soybeans Give Up 28¢ In Two Sessions

Demand switches, rally overdone pressure farm markets.

DES MOINES, Iowa --On Friday, the CME Group farm markets hit a wall of bearish news, couldn’t handle it, and as a result, sold off.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 5¼¢ lower at $3.68¼. The December corn futures finished 4¾¢ lower at $3.94¼.

March soybean futures ended 11¼¢ lower at $10.32½, while the November soybean futures finished 5¾¢ lower at $10.18¼.

March wheat futures closed 6¾¢ lower at $4.41.

March soy meal futures closed $2.40 per short ton lower at $339.60. March soy oil futures ended 0.63¢ lower at 32.89¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.10 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 43 points lower.

DeAnne Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures cofounder and trader, says that the news is bearish for the soybean market.

“I’m hearing a couple of bean cargoes switched from Pacific Northwest port to Brazil,” she says.

The recent wheat rally is considered overdone, and ownership internals have changed.

“Corn peeked its head at $4.00, and has turned as well, as ownership reality settling in there,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

France crop looking good in wheat, as well as India, so wheat traders are running out of time, in order for global crop problems to be supportive.

Ag twitter posters are buzzing about acreage numbers for corn and soybeans.

“My corn thoughts are in line with the street, but think the street is way under what bean acres will be planted,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

Also on Friday, the USDA announced fresh exports. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 194,112 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year and 134,112 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s corn and soybean markets gave back all of their gains from yesterday. The USDA weekly export sales, better than expected, still did not provide much support.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 5¼¢ lower at $3.73½, while the December corn futures finished 3¾¢ lower at $3.99.

March soybean futures closed 17½¢ lower at $10.43¾, while the November soybean futures finished 10¼¢ lower at $10.24.

March wheat futures ended 7¢ lower at $4.47¾.

March soy meal futures closed $4.90 lower at $342.00. March soy oil futures ended 0.42¢ lower at 33.52¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.19 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that corn and beans are lower, after trading mixed earlier.

“Today’s weekly export sales report showed better than expected exports in all commodities. It’s no surprise the markets are lower with the volatility in the U.S. dollar the past few weeks, stepped-up producer selling, and improved weather in South America with soybean demand starting to shift to Brazil,” Roose says.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

Soybeans jumped and corn was higher to close out th Tuesday session on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

At the close, the March corn futures settled 4½¢ higher at $3.78¾, and new-crop December 2017 futures finishd 3¼¢ higher at $4.02¾ per bushel.

March soybean futures closed 16¼¢ higher at $10.61¼, while November 2017 soybean futures finished 11¼¢ higher at $10.34¼.

March wheat futures ended 5¼¢ higher at $4.54¾.

March soy meal futures closed $7.40 a short ton higher at $346.90. March soy oil futures ended 0.20¢ lower at 33.94¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 10¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says there are forecasts for some big rains in the next few days and into the weekend in Argentina. 

“Some areas could get another 6 to 8 inches, so flood fears are out there. The Brazil harvest is moving forward, but the producer is still not selling very much. The real is now over 32.5¢. At the beginning of December, it was down near 28¢,” Scoville says. Producers want more real per ton than they are going to get.”

Price support is coming from China demand ideas that remain strong and ideas are that we are benefiting because of delayed sales in Brazil and the Argentina rains, Scoville says.  “Wheat strength is all about the crops breaking dormancy in the west and greening up. Still just half way through February, so if the wheat gets going and then we freeze again, a small crop could get much smaller.” 

Corn is up with the others and on lack of U.S. farmer selling against good ethanol and export demand, Scoville says.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, despite fresh export demand for corn and soybeans, the CME Group’s farm futures remain lower.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1¼¢ lower at $3.74¼, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished unchanged at 3.99 per bushel.

March soybean futures closed 9¼¢ lower at $10.45; November 2017 soybean futures settled 4¼¢ lower at $10.23.

March wheat futures closed 2¾¢ lower at $4.49½.

March soy meal futures settled $3.70 a short ton lower at $339.50. March soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ lower at 34.14¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 41¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 67 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that the grain markets remained on the defensive.

“With profit-taking in all grains taking a break from the surge in open interest, improving weather in South America, increased producer selling, and the strong dollar had grain buyers starting to look at more competitive world markets,” Roose says.

Mike North, president, Commodity Risk Management Group, says that while the story about Mexico is certainly a watchpoint, it has not gained any immediate traction in the market. 

“Prices weakened on news of a coming interest rate hike, ongoing thoughts of growing soybean acreage/supplies, and technical breakdown in the soybean charts that continued yesterday’s sell-off,” North says. 

“With prices returning to the near term, February trend line, all eyes will be watching the current wedge formation that invites a breakout (with the current bias suggesting lower,” says North.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 229,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2017/2018 marketing year 
  • Export sales of 142,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/2017 marketing year 

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets close mixed.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1¢ higher at $3.75½, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished ¼¢ higher at $3.99½ per bushel.

March soybean futures settled 4¾¢ lower at $10.54¼; November 2017 soybean futures closed 2¾¢ lower at $10.27¼.

March wheat futures finished 3¼¢ higher at $4.52¼.

March soy meal futures closed $1.10 short ton higher at $343.20. March soy oil futures ended 0.44¢ lower at 34.17¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 93¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 152 points higher.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

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