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The Bounce For Soybeans Continued Thursday

Corn prices are slightly higher, too.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s soybean market closed off its daily highs, adding to its weekly gains.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 2¢ higher at $3.71, while December futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.94 1/2.

May soybean futures closed 7 3/4¢ higher at $9.55 1/2, November soybean futures ended 6 1/4¢ higher at $9.61 3/4.

May wheat futures closed 3 1/2¢ lower at $4.29 3/4.

May soy meal futures finished $4.80 per short ton higher at $317.50. May soy oil futures closed $0.05 lower at 31.19¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.06 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points lower.

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities chief grain strategist, says that the market rally is spurred by Fund buying as the negative crop report Tuesday just did not have the follow through most had hoped.

“Continued strong demand, as we had yet another solid week of weekly export sales, is also adding some support. Regarding the soybean market, the key price reversal we got this week, in which we made a new low and then closed not only higher but will likely close above last week’s high, is very positive for the charts,” Bratland says.

Bratland adds, “Sometimes we need a negative report to put in a low and for the near term that seems to be true. So, overall, some oversold conditions, key reversal higher along with continued strong demand for US soybeans, at a time when our exports are supposed to be slowing down, has the bears a bit nervous down here for the near term. Rallies will be limited though, as we still have abundant stocks in US and world.”
 
Corn rally has to do a bit with oversold conditions, along with some weather talk, he says.

“It’s plenty early in the planting season, but if the wet weather persists corn needs to price in some more risk premium. It still feels corn is range bound and we are at the upper end of range. But, if the weather continues to stay wet and planters get off to a slow start, we could see corn breakout to the upside,” Bratland says. 

Overnight, China announced that its March soybean imports of 6.33 mmt is a new record for that month, following records for January and February. For the crop year, China’s soybean imports have reached 41.6 mmt vs 38.3 mmt. at this same time a year ago.   

On Thursday, the USDA Weekly Export Sales report showed that corn and soybean sales were at the low end of expectations.

  • Wheat= 546,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between  350,000-750,000 metric tons.
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  • Corn= 788,000 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 850,000-1,250,000 metric tons.
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  • Soybeans= 527,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 450,000-900,000 metric tons.
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  • Soybean meal= 238,200 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-450,000 metric tons.   

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s soybean futures market closed off its highs, but still higher.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 2½¢ higher at $3.69, and December futures closed 2¢ higher at $3.92½.

May soybean futures settled 8½¢ higher at $9.47¾, while November soybean futures ended 7¢ higher at $9.55½.

May wheat futures closed unchanged at $4.33¼.

May soy meal futures settled $3.40 per short ton higher at $312.70. May soy oil futures closed 0.17¢ higher at 31.24¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 30¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.

Deanna Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures cofounder and grain trader, says the main thing that the market is worrying about is the soybean weather in Argentina.

“Also, the investors are focused on the technicals that were rather compressed, with the recent break off the February/March highs. Plus, the soybean futures price spread between the July and November contracts broke from 60+ down to even money and then bounced off of that mark,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

She adds, “I’m staying away from markets this week, with the markets closed on Friday.”

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets prepare for the USDA April Supply/Demand and WASDE Reports to be released at 11 a.m. (CDT).

In early trading, the May corn futures are ¾¢ higher at $3.67; December futures are ¼¢ lower at $3.90.

May soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.37. November futures are 3¾¢ lower at $9.46.

May wheat futures are ¼¢ higher at $4.29.

May soy meal futures are $1.50 per short ton lower at $307.60. May soy oil futures are 0.12¢ lower at 31.23¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 17¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s corn and wheat markets closed higher.

At the close, the May corn futures closed 7½¢ higher at $3.67, while December futures finished 6½¢ higher at $3.91.

May soybean futures finished ¼¢ lower at $9.41¾. November soybean futures ended ¼¢ higher at $9.49¾.

May wheat futures ended 4¾¢ higher at $4.28¾¢.

May soy meal futures closed $1.70 per short ton higher at $309.10. May soy oil futures closed 0.27¢ lower at 31.35¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 75¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that most specs and a lot of hedgers are sitting on their hands until tomorrow. 

“It’s wet in corn country. We might be 5% planted so far, all of it near the Gulf Coast or far Southeast. Nothing much happening farther north, and it looks like a generally wet week. So, there will be some more delays. It is a little early to get excited, but the market is very short right now, and we are getting some position even before the reports tomorrow and the rains,” Scoville says. 

He adds, “Wheat and soybeans not too exciting. Both were higher overnight but are having trouble holding it today. I expect quiet markets today, more excitement tomorrow, then basically dying for the Easter week.”

On Monday, the USDA announced a fresh corn export sale.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 101,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

The U.S. 2017 planting season is in its very early stages.

On Monday, the USDA pegged U.S. corn planting at 3% planted, behind an average of trade estimates for 4% but in line with the five-year average.

Corn planting appears to be precisely on pace with the five-year average overall according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. With three percent of total corn acres planted by April 9, progress paralleled the five-year average for this point and sat only one percentage point behind planting progress recorded at this point in 2016.
Progress surpassed the five-year average in Texas by nine percentage points.  Tennessee saw the greatest lags in progress with acres planted a full nine percentage points lower than the five-year average.

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