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Soybeans Close 6¢ Higher Friday

Wheat is giving back yesterday’s gains.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s soybean markets closed higher, using yesterday’s friendly USDA Report and funds as part of the support.

At the close, the March corn futures are ¼¢ higher at $3.58½, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished ¼¢ higher $3.86¼ per bushel.

March soybean futures finished 6¢ higher at $10.46¼, while November 2017 soybean futures settled 2¢ higher at $10.18½.

March wheat futures closed ¼¢ lower at $4.26.

March soy meal futures closed $6.00 per short ton higher at $333.90. March soy oil futures ended 0.47¢ lower at 35.60¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.59 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points lower at 19,867 points.

The market is buying soybean acres, while using crop-weather issues in Argentina to move higher, analysts say.

Alan Brugler, President Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that the outside investors may have their foot on the soybean ‘gas.’

“Funds are long beans, got a good rally going in meal, which supports product value of the beans. There is a little bit of commodity price inflation betting going on, also. Chart buy signals after yesterday’s rally out of a basing formation,” Brugler says.

Reminder: The CME Group Exchange markets will be closed Monday, January 16, 2017, in recognition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Trading resumes, electronically, on Monday night.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

 

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm futures prices are tepid, ahead of today’s USDA January Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports.

In early trading, the March corn futures are ¾¢ lower at $3.56, and new-crop December 2017 futures are ½¢ lower at $3.85 per bushel.

March soybean futures are ¼¢ higher at $10.11, while November 2017 soybean futures are 1½¢ lower at $9.96.

March wheat futures are ¼¢ higher at $4.19.

March soy meal futures are $1.20 short ton higher at $316.10. March soy oil futures are 0.26¢ lower at 35.74¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.05 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points lower at 19,840 points.

On Thursday, the USDA announced fresh export sales for corn.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
 

  • Export sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2016/2017 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 253,488 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

 
The marketing year for corn began September 1.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm futures ended off their daily lows, as traders position themselves ahead of an expected bearish USDA report tomorrow.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1¢ lower at $3.57¼, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished ¾¢ lower at $3.85¾ per bushel.

March soybean futures ended 2¼¢ lower at $10.11½, while November 2017 soybean futures closed 2¢ lower at $9.98.

March wheat futures finished 8¢ lower at $4.18¾.

March soy meal futures settled $2.60 short ton lower at $314.90. March soy oil futures closed 0.36¢ higher at 36.00¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.35 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher at 19,926 points.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that ideas of improving weather forecasts are the reason for the selling. 

“There are showers in the forecast for northern Brazil and some are talking drier days for northern Argentina, as well. But this rain will be a quick hitter and not super beneficial. Then it turns warmer and drier again,” Scoville says. 

Winter wheat areas of the U.S. are likely to see more rain into the weekend, as these storms from the West Coast power on through, Scoville says. 

“A good reason to take some risk off before the reports tomorrow, although I do, in fact, think you can buy this break. I'm not expecting any newly bearish things tomorrow,” Scoville says.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s soybean markets used gobal crop weather concerns to finish higher.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1¾¢ lower at $3.58¼, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.86½ per bushel.

March soybean futures closed 8½¢ higher at $10.13¾; November 2017 soybean futures ended 6¼¢ higher at $10.00.

March wheat futures closed ½¢ lower at $4.26¾.

March soy meal futures settled $3.60 short ton higher at $317.50. March soy oil futures closed 0.15¢ higher at 35.64¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.08 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower at 19,874 points.

On Tuesday, the USDA reported fresh corn exports.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Taiwan during the 2016/2017 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 241,600 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 91,300 metric tons are for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 150,300 metric tons are for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

Matt Pierce, Futures International floor trader on the CME Group’s floor, says the soybean market is trading supply issues.

“The beans are slightly fired up over Argentina’s rains. But overall, there is momentum and ability to stay above $10 per bushel, in spite of weaker Chinese crush margins,” Pierce says.

Regarding index rebalancing, there are no allocations into beans and bean oil markets, Pierce says. “They will see a small reduction.”

He adds, “Allocations into wheat and corn futures keep those markets from falling on a lack of fresh news. Still, many are waiting for the report on Thursday to start the trading year.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s soybean market finished strong, due to the trade’s concern over crop weather in Brazil. 

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1½¢ higher at $3.59½; new-crop December 2017 futures ended 2¢ higher at $3.87½ per bushel.

March soybean futures settled 10½¢ higher at $10.05¼, and November 2017 soybean futures closed 11¼¢ higher at $9.93¾.

March wheat futures finished 4¢ higher at $4.27¼.

March soy meal futures closed $2.60 per short ton higher at $313.90. March soy oil futures are 0.51¢ higher at 35.49¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.82 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points lower at 19,899 points.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the markets face rally challenges.

“Grain markets have been mixed and are currently trading higher in a market that is positioning for Thursday’s January crop report. With no shortage of grain, favorable crop weather in South America, rallies will be limited. Plus, producers will be willing sellers on rallies, with crop ratings on wheat giving support on breaks,” Roose says.

Some parts of the South American country remain dry, weather forecasters said. Dry weather will persist in northeastern parts of the country, among the biggest soybean producers in the world, according to MDA Information Services. Still, showers in northern Brazil will boost crop prospects. Prices also may be rising, as those looking for a bargain take advantage of Friday’s 17¢ decline and purchase contracts they feel are undervalued. 

Traders this morning are largely ignoring the poor Export Sales Report released Friday that showed soybean sales in the last week of December plunged to 87,500 metric tons, down more than 90% from the prior week. Cancellations doomed the sales, as unknown buyers canceled almost 900,000 in purchases. Corn and wheat sales also were dismal. Exporters sold 429,200 tons of corn, a marketing year low and down 55% from the prior week, and 183,700, down 68% and also the lowest since the year started on June 1. 

“The soybean market is trading higher, but not with a lot of conviction,” said Tomm Pfitzenmaier, the president of Summit Commodity Brokerage in Des Moines, Iowa, in a report on Monday. “The South American weather seems to have stabilized for now, but there is the potential for some additional weather premium if the dryness persists in northern Brazil and southern Argentina.”

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