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Soybean Prices Close Higher Friday

Fresh export sales support soybean complex

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Friday’s farm markets stay mostly lower, with the positive momentum decaying into week’s end.

At the close, the July corn futures settled 1/2¢ lower at $3.63 3/4, while December futures finished 1/2¢ lower at $3.82.

July soybean futures ended 4¢ higher at $9.60 3/4, November soybean futures ended 5 3/4¢ higher at $9.59 1/2.

July wheat futures settled 3/4¢ lower at $4.21.

July soy meal futures settled $1.70 per short ton higher at $313.60. July soy oil futures closed $0.04 higher at 32.16¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.20 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

Jack Scoville,The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that alls quiet at the farm market’s version of Lake Wobegon.

“I think people are holding back due to the French elections and on uncertainty about the weather,” Scoville says.  

He adds, “Farmers are mostly outside, but not necessarily planting as most have been too wet.  But, I have farmer-customers that are out there working away.”

There is still some talk of good demand for US Soybeans in summer months, with China getting the mention of course, he says.  

“There were sales today. So, I suppose it is true.  Funds are selling corn and wheat and finding not much buying. Forecasts for next week look fairly wet, and lots of people are looking at buying corn due to the potential for some planting delays, but not much action so far,” Scoville says.

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities grain broker, says all eyes are on planting weather conditions.

“How much of the corn crop did the U.S. get planted this week? The five-year average planting pace is at 16% planted. We will be behind that pace, but can the U.S. eclipse 10% planted as a nation, in Monday afternoon’s report?” Bratland asks.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 146,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s wheat market closed double digits lower, pulling corn down with it.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 4¢ lower at $3.57; December futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.82¼.

July soybean futures ended 3¾¢ lower at $9.56¾, and November soybean futures closed 4½¢ lower at $9.53¾.

July wheat futures closed 12¾¢ lower at $4.21¾.

July soy meal futures settled $3.30 per short ton lower at $311.90. July soy oil futures closed 0.33¢ higher at 32.12¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 18¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 200 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says the demand news is pressuring prices.

“The grains continue to take premium out of the market today on disappointing exports on corn, beans, and meal. Plus, favorable weather conditions in Argentina and anticipating larger planted acres out of Canada in tomorrow’s report,” Roose says.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report shows wheat sales beat expectations and corn sales, for last week, came in at the high end of expectations.

  • Wheat: 551,200 metric tons vs. the trade expectations of between 250,000 and 450,000 metric tons
  • Corn: 848,200 mt. vs. the trade expectations of between 700,000 and 1,000,000 metric tons 
  • Soybeans: 225,000 mt. vs. the trade expectations of between 300,000 and 500,000 metric tons 
  • Soybean meal: 135,100 mt vs. the trade expectations of between 50,000 and 200,000 metric tons 

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s soybean market closed off its daily highs, the same action from yesterday. As a result, corn prices ended mixed.

At the close, the May corn futures settled unchanged at $3.61¼, while December futures finished ¼¢ higher at $3.86½.

May soybean futures finished 4¼¢ higher at $9.50¼, November soybean futures closed 1½¢ higher at $9.58¼.

July wheat futures ended 2½¢ lower at $4.34½.

July soy meal futures are $1.40 per short ton lower at $315.20. July soy oil futures closed 0.41¢ higher at 31.70¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.95 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that it’s been mostly a higher market.  

“Beans need some sales and wire reports indicate that Brazil producers are holding after being good sellers earlier. I was getting price fixing before, not much so far this week.”  

He adds, “I think corn is getting into a weather market, with increasing talk of the potential for planting delays.  We are slow, but planting is going on. So, we will see.”  
Minneapolis is the wheat leader, buyers are looking at reduced Canadian area and perhaps some planting delays there too, Scoville says.  

“Chicago wheat markets are kind of going along for the ride, but reports of great looking crops keeping Chicago pinned down.  My commercial guys and many farmers are quiet, mostly just spec trade today,” Scoville says.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Commodities grain analyst, says that the markets are getting support from fund investors.

“Funds are likely to keep adding to short positions in corn and soybeans, until the U.S. weather becomes a problem that will impact production. There will be small rallies, but the funds will continue to sell until the weather proves to be a real problem,” Linneman says.

Meanwhile, the corn market is digesting the U.S. weekly ethanol production report, with the output still below the psychological 1 million barrel-per-day pace.

According to Energy Informaton Agency data, ethanol production averaged 993,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 41.71 million gallons daily. That is up 7,000 b/d from the week before but still settling below the million b/d threshold.

The four-week average for ethanol production slipped to 1.01 million b/d for an annualized rate of 15.53 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol marginally clipped up to 23 million barrels.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s soybean market shed some losses, but closed lower from fundamental factors such as crop-weather and a technical factor such as the positions of fund investors.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 4¾¢ lower at $3.61¾¢, and December futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.86¼.

May soybean futures finished 7¼¢ lower at $9.46; November soybean futures ended 5½¢ lower at $9.56¾¢.

May wheat futures closed 1½¢ higher at $4.22.

May soy meal futures ended $1.20 per short ton lower at $312.20. May soy oil futures settled 0.66¢ lower at 31.14¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points lower.

Deanna Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures cofounder and trader, says that the ag commodities market seems comfortable going lower.

“We have base weakness from the weather not being as prohibitive as had been forecasted,” Hawthorne-Lahre says. “Plus, the structure of the funds, who are long beans and short wheat. To the extent that the U.S. could see lost corn acres could go beans, I would be lightening up as well if I were them.”

She adds, “The whole grain complex feels heavy. I have been neutral wheat since it penetrated the $4.00 level several weeks ago, but see little reason for ownership.”

The grain market is expected to remain in a tight trading range, with beans being the most vulnerable to a break, she says.

“With the soybean option market’s volalitility hanging around 15%, this thing is very comfortable what it is doing,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

Wheat, corn, and soybean futures closed lower on Monday amid rising estimates for U.S. and global stockpiles. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week pegged domestic wheat stockpiles at 1.159 billion bushels, up from a prior forecast of 1.129 billion bushels, and near a 30-year high.

World carryout is pegged at 252.3 million metric tons, up from the previous outlook for 250 million tons, according to the USDA. Favorable weather in many of the biggest growing regions has given crops a boost. Russian ending stockpiles of wheat are forecast at almost 12 million metric tons, more than double the prior year, U.S. government data show. 

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 8¾¢ to $4.21 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City wheat lost 11¼¢ to $4.16 a bushel. 

U.S. corn inventories are expected to be 2.32 billion bushels, the government said last week, unchanged from a March estimate but well above last year’s 1.74 billion. 

Brazil's soybean inventories are projected at 22.6 million tons from 18.1 million a year earlier, according to the USDA. 

“Grain and soy markets have begun this new week with a bit of hesitancy as we are caught between very ample world supplies and the prospects (risks) associated with producing summer crops in 2017,” said Dan Hueber, the president of The Hueber Report in Sycamore, Illinois. Still, he said he remains optimistic in the short term despite a “few bumps in the road.”

Corn futures declined 4½¢ to $3.66½ a bushel in Chicago. 

Soybeans closed down 3½¢ to $9.52 a bushel. Soy meal futures lost $4.70 to $312.80 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.62¢ to 31.81¢ a pound. 

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