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Milk production falls

Milk production has slipped due to the hot weather and damaged crops, relative to the 2012 drought that by some standards was the worst since the 1930s Dust Bowl.

From the Posson Model business Cycle Report-

The long term 3yr business cycle trend for dairy is up from the low made during 2012 for both cheese and milk prices, and this trend is up until late 2013 to early 2014. Objectives range from $23 to $27 per cwt Class 3 milk. 

A similar trend for butter may peak as early as mid 2013. Objectives range from $2.20 to $2.75 per pound.

The model based opinion currently favors the high end of the objectives range.

The model based opinion performed well for short term trends of DEC milk futures with correct calls for bottoms 9/11, 9/25, and 10/10. Next bottom is due by early next week. Related tops were correctly called 9/20, 10/5, while a top made 10/15 was one day earlier than model script. 

Cheese and C3 milk futures can consolidate a bit during the next few weeks, but the best model script still calls for higher price going into year end.

Feed cost-

The model based opinion was correct for a decline of grain prices from September into October. Current best forecast is that corn made a major L1 intermediate intra-year trend bottom as of week of 9/24, and the trend is now up until late November to early December with objectives as high as $8 to $8.20. The long term trend is up from the low of this year to a top that might not occur until summer 2013, and with potential for $10 to $12. I canceled the opinion corn might not trade over $9.18. A short term trend bottom should occur this week. The model forecast is also quite bullish wheat.

Soy meal is due for a major L1 intermediate intra-year trend bottom as of this week, and should bottom no later than this month, and the trend should be of higher price for November. There is potential to trade to near the current 2012 high, but meal alongside soybeans can lag corn and wheat. The long term trend is up for soy meal, and perhaps to be sustained until summer 2013 month, and with potential for $640 to $680. A short term bottom is favored this week or by early next.

Feed users should have some protection from higher year end and from higher 2013 prices.

The model research had shown past few years that a major drought and related crop damage was due no later than 2014, and ideally to occur 2008 to 2012. Current best model script states that although the cyclical impact in terms of a specific point, might have occurred during 2012, that 2013 weather and crop production is not likely to return to previous levels. The balance sheet could remain tight through 2014 even with a positive turn of the climate and production cycles.

Economy-

Current model script states the economy is in a positive growth trend from the 2009 recession and until 2019. This trend fits within still larger super cycle trends that are bullish the economies, stocks, commodities, real estate, and interest rates until the 2030s. During mid 2012 a correction occurred that might have fit within a larger correction from 2011 or even 2010, and when a secondary recession likely occurred on a global basis. Current model script states this has come to an end, and 2013 is to be an improving year of the economy both globally and domestically.

Energy-

Expect higher prices during November. The long term trend is up into summer 2013.

Stocks-

The best model script favors November to be a higher month for stock prices.

Rates-

The best model script favors higher rates for November. Higher rates for a portion of 2013, and this is assumed to be a positive sign of the economy.

Business change-

During July, I sold my successful brokerage business of 16 years in duration to focus more on analysis presented by Ag Financial Strategies. A new website with subscription service of the Posson Model Business Cycle report will launch soon. 

In addition, I am fund manager for Captura Wealth, a private fund. The fund using a business cycle approach recorded nearly a 7% performance for September. I think it is, so far for 2012, out performing various hedge fund, and alternative indexes.

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Rich Posson, Dairy, grain and economy commentator.

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