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Thomas Elwood: Early livestock commentary

09/01/2010 @ 10:02am

Kansas traded a few cattle at $97.00 on Tuesday following a weak close in the futures market.  A small 

number of cattle also traded at $97.00 in Western Nebraska.  Texas feedlots passed the lower bids, 

hoping for something better later in the week.  Bids are still no better than $97.00 in Texas this morning.  

Additional weakness in futures today could spur additional sales at the lower money. 

The choice cutout was down $0.10 at $163.64 last night, with the select down $0.74 at $156.88. 

Volume was extremely light again.  Rounds were consistently discounted, and select chucks took a big 

hit.  Ribs were mixed, but we hear there is unsold product ahead of the Labor Day weekend. 

HOGS

Cash hog market calls are steady to $0.50 lower this morning.   Given the sharp break in the cutout last 

night, it wouldn't surprise us to see packers press the market harder as the day wears on.

The pork cutout lost $2.03 last night.  Bone-in loins dropped another 10 cents, while butts were down 

as much as 5 cents on the day.  Ribs also began their seasonal collapse.    Hams, on the other hand, 

continue to be well supported by a combination of strong export buying and domestic deli demand.  

Heavy hams were quoted 3 cents higher.  Bellies were quoted steady. 

Last night's CME weekly storage report showed an out-movement of 1.471 mill lbs compared to an 

out-movement last year of 4.428 mill lbs. Stocks now total 1.470 mill lbs compared to 31.085 mill lbs 

last year.   The extremely small stocks are the reason belly prices have not broken despite slaughter up at 

2.1 mill head a week.   

 

Friday's Cold Storage Report showed slightly more total pork in the freezers than the industry 

expected.  Total pork stocks at the end of July were 391.2 mill lbs compared to the average estimate of 

385.9 mill lbs.  This compares to 539.7 mill lbs last year, and still represents a substantial decline in 

stocks.  Most notable are belly stocks.  End of July belly stocks totaled 21.8 mill lbs compared to 60.2 

mill lbs last year. 


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