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Investors Eye Midwest Weather Models

Sunday night's weather to determine trade direction.

Early in the day-trading session, Friday, corn started quiet but later on picked up support as time moved closer to the release of the extended weather maps.

Trade put in some light support just before the extended outlook and those maps didn't disappoint today, still putting heat into the forecast on days 13 through 15. Seeing the forecast remain the same as yesterday helped to keep support in this market, right up to the close.

It should be very clear that weather maps are all corn traders need to watch right now. Some forecasters had suggested earlier in the week to watch out for high pressure ridges. So, if Monday's map still shows heat we can expect more support again.

All focus in this market will be on the Sunday night and Monday morning weather maps. If heat is still seen we can expect continued support and if that heat is removed we might see a pullback all the way to recent lows yesterday morning. Given that the weather threat is in the forecast 14 days out anything is possible when trade resumes Sunday night.

Bulls

  • Heat was still found in the 11 - 15 day maps with the most intense heat seen on day 14
  • Next major chart resistance is still not expected until 392 in July or 409 in December
  • Bulls will be looking for heat to still be found in the forecast next week, it will be the key to a further bounce

Bears

  • Bears are obviously looking for heat in the extended maps to be removed by the time Sunday night or Monday trade resumes
  • Trade is likely expecting a 1% increase to the GTE rating so bears will want to see a 2% or greater increase
  • If corn pulls back, bears can look for larger support not to be found until a return to 370 in July

 

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