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Investors Await Tuesday's USDA Report

Traders eye U.S. stock build

Friday morning saw the release of the official estimates for Tuesday's Supply/Demand report which helped to add a little more weight to corn.

Last month saw corn carryout at 2.320 and the average analysts' average estimate for Tuesday is an increase to 2.352. It is likely that trade has priced most of this in already as they have expected this report to be slightly bearish for some time now. Friday helped to put a solid number to that thought of a slightly bearish report.

At this point, we would have to think trade is prepared for that 2.352 number meaning that Tuesday would likely have to generate a number higher than that to see a selling reaction. Friday's weather maps had active rainfall for TX/OK/MO with lighter amounts for southern Illinois, but as we know it will mean much more what Monday's maps show.

For next week, in particular, any trading of weather maps will likely have to wait until after Tuesday's report. But corn traders will still want to watch Monday's maps closely to know what to expect for corn direction after the report.

In the short term, Tuesday's report should be the center of attention. Longer term weather maps are likely most important, especially if any threats to slow planting are seen.

Bulls

  • Bulls will be looking for a wet forecast on Monday to give some support to corn after seeing Tuesday's report
  • Bulls will want to see the USDA raise their ethanol usage number on Tuesday's report, ethanol has been strong enough the last couple months to expect an increase on the balance sheet

Bears

  • Bears will be looking for a carryout increase of 32 million bushels as the analysts' estimate suggests
  • Bears will also be looking for a clear forecast to avoid any slow planting discussion before or after Tuesday's report
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