Done, finally

Agriculture.com Staff 10/26/2007 @ 2:08pm

Return of sunny weather last Saturday made it possible to finish up soybean harvest on Monday. It was a season of frequent starts and stops caused by wet weather. I do not keep weather records myself, but Omaha had the wettest October in history.

All of it came before October 19. Considering the precipitation, I feel fortunate to not have any soybeans still in the field. When I drove 15 miles to get some service on my pickup this morning, it appeared that about half of the soybeans are still to be harvested in this area. Less than half the corn crop is in the bin. Combines were running everywhere I looked.

I will have comments on this year's soybean yields in a future column. My main concern now is marketing. The timing of the recent rally in the soybean market could not be much better. As of today, the price improvement has lasted three weeks. That is the minimum amount to complete a normal bounce. The cash price improvement from the October 8 low looks as if it is going to be about 90 cents over the October 8 low. Those factors qualify this move as a normal 'Dead Cat Bounce'.

I do not know where the soybean market will go from here. The strength of the rally following the September crop report is a bullish indicator. I also look at the dollars return per acre and what it will do for my cash flow. Regardless of how bullish the outlook is, grossing $500 per acre in non irrigated Nebraska is hard to pass up.

In my October newsletter, I said that the long term seasonal high for wheat is at the end of October, but at these prices anything can happen. In a September Ag Online column, I ask the theoretical question "Who will buy $9 wheat." Some who read the column took issue with me. They said that the fundamentals were so strong that prices will go much higher. Fundamentals are most positive when the price is at its peak. Since I wrote that column, wheat futures dropped more than a dollar a bushel.

I know little about wheat. I do understand market psychology. Just like wheat, soybean prices can go down also. I do not know when it will happen. I know that the price is 84 cents better today than it was on October 8. I know that this move has met criteria that have served me well in previous years. These factors led me to sell part of the 2007 cash soybeans yesterday. Regardless of how much higher soybean prices go, I can be happy with what I have sold at these levels. I sell in increments. If prices continue to rise, I will sell more.

Return of sunny weather last Saturday made it possible to finish up soybean harvest on Monday. It was a season of frequent starts and stops caused by wet weather. I do not keep weather records myself, but Omaha had the wettest October in history.

CancelPost Comment
MORE FROM AGRICULTURE.COM STAFF more +

Farm and ranch risk management resources By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Government resources USDA Risk Management Agency Download free insurance program and…

Major types of crop insurance policies By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am Crop insurance for major field crops comes in two types: yield-based coverage that pays an…

Marketing 101 - Are options the right tool… By: 07/07/2010 @ 9:10am "If you are looking for a low risk way to protect yourself against prices moving either higher or…

MEDIA CENTERmore +
This container should display a .swf file. If not, you may need to upgrade your Flash player.
Looking Out for Soybean Cyst Nematodes