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Lack of China demand hurts soy market

Agriculture.com Staff 02/19/2010 @ 8:38am

Soybeans: It was another very low volume trading day in beans today. This morning started with a day session reaction to the higher dollar and after that trade was dead calm for the rest of the day. Next week we get China back into the market. They have been tied up with the Lunar New Year holidays. That is not to say they will come back into the market causing an instant reaction but they can give us some demand news to trade from. For now, the market continues to wait on South America to put out harvest numbers in Argentina and southern Brazil. This waiting is evident by the fact beans did not follow outside markets or even find a short profit taking bounce at the end of the day.

With the dollar moving as much as it has, the lack of a move in beans shows that trading funds are still on the sidelines. We will have to keep playing the waiting game for better fundamental news. Trading in this market should still be kept short term. Market movement this week should be ignored as a guide for future movement. We want to caution those using the spike earlier in the week as a guide to thinking this market is due for another bounce. A spring bounce will be based on weather, fund buying and disappointing South American harvest numbers. None of these factors were traded this week and that is why we can't relate any movement this week to our future trading ideas. Keep an eye out for news that is deserving of moving the bean market. We want to stress that if beans start moving without sufficient news to justify it, it may be better to take any moves with a grain of salt for now. We are keeping watch for the news we can rely on for sound trades.

Direction: Allendale's downside targets have been met and we are neutral to slightly positive soybeans. Today's trade was lower on low volume once again. Next week does hold the chance for better volume but still likely to be choppy trade…Ryan Ettner

Working Trade(s): · (01/26) Sold March 970 soybean call 12, option expired worthless 02/19 for +$600. · (02/19) Bought May 950 3/4, risk 938, objective 975. Closed 954 1/2.

***Disclaimer*** The commentary and trades below are derived from technical indicators provided in our Allendale Advanced Charts pages and may not correspond with the fundamental commentary above.

Advanced Charts Direction: Beans broke the current uptrend today, but managed to close back above it. The market found support at the 20 day moving average near 933. The close was near the highs, but we need to see follow-through next week…Monica Moehring

Vital Technical Indicator: The next projected major turn day for soybeans is February 24, soybean meal is February 23, and soybean oil is March 1.

Closing Cattle Commentary

Live Cattle: Chalk another week up for cattle feeders. Extreme price gains of $3 were seen plains with active sales of $92 and $92.50. The cattle market has been on a tear ever since the Department of Labor released that good employment report on the 5th. Also contributing to the bullish cause has been weather. The latest weight report shows these weather problems are taking 1.8% off weekly beef production totals.

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