Large deliveries against May soybeans, analysts say
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Deliveries against the Chicago Board of Trade May soybean contract on first notice day Monday are expected to be heavy, analysts said.
Analysts expect deliveries against the CBOT May soybean contract to fall in a range of 500 to 2,500 lots, with most analysts leaning toward a range of 500 to 1,000 lots.
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, 2,756 contracts were registered for delivery at CBOT approved warehouses.
The combination of record inventories and historically wide cash basis levels should generate some large deliveries, said Don Roose, president U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, IA.
The best basis levels are at delivery points and one would assume participants would take delivery values, Mr. Roose added.
Roy Huckabay, analyst with the Linn Group in Chicago said with cash prices much lower than delivery equivalents, delivery is the most attractive offer.
However, some analysts contend that with the market trading near full carry, receipt holders maybe willing to hold onto supplies.
Carry is the cost of taking delivery of the grain and includes storage, insurance and interest.
The May/July spread was trading at a 16 cent carry and the May/August spread was trading with a 23 cent carry at 12:30 p.m. EDT Thursday. The spreads are seen providing some incentive to entice some participants into storing soybeans.
Most analysts anticipate moderate to large soymeal delivery notices will be posted on first notice day. 2,094 contracts were registered at CBOT approved warehouses as of Wednesday.
Analysts said the cash soymeal basis is extremely weak, and with large stocks and competition from South America, large deliveries are a possibility.
Analysts expect deliveries against the CBOT May soymeal contract to fall in a range of zero to 1,000 lots.
"Normally, you don't see deliveries in soymeal until the last part of the delivery period, but based on cash prices, I would not be surprised to see 1,000 lots issued on first notice day," Huckabay said.
Soyoil deliveries are a bit of a wild card, traders and analysts said. With 12,006 contracts registered for delivery and no shortage of available soyoil stocks its tough to figure just how many receipts could be put out, traders said.
Most analysts anticipate soyoil deliveries in the range of 2,000 to 3,000 lots, with Allendale Inc. seeing deliveries potentially as large as 8,000 lots.
The market is not lacking soyoil inventories, and with crushing margins favorable, the market is swimming in soyoil stocks, said Huckabay.
The Census Bureau reported preliminary soyoil stocks at the end of March stood at 3.354 billion pounds, well above the 2.718 billion reported at the same time last year.
Strong competition from South American origins coupled with ideas biodiesel demand has not taken off as quickly as many had anticipated allows for abundant inventories and should entice holders to put out receipts, analysts said.