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U.S. soybean meal exports up, soybean exports lower than expected
Expectations for an increase in soybean acreage in 2006 are
by the cost advantage of soybeans over competing crops like corn, said a
University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"Other factors driving these expectations include increased acreage of
double-cropped soybeans stemming from an increase in acreage of soft red
winter wheat and a rebound in acreage in Minnesota and the Dakotas if
spring weather is more normal," said Darrel Good.
Good's comments came as he reviewed consumption, stocks, and acreage of
"The magnitude of U.S. soybean exports during the current marketing year
continues to be disappointing," he said. "The USDA now forecasts 2005-06
marketing year shipments at only 900 million bushels.
"At the beginning of the 2005-06 marketing year, the USDA expected U.S.
exports would reach a record 1.115 billion bushels. That forecast has
lowered every month since October 2005."
So far this year, USDA weekly export estimates have been tracking the
monthly Census Bureau estimates very closely, he noted. Through January
2006, both the cumulative inspections estimate and the cumulative
from the Export Sales report were just five million bushels below the
Census Bureau estimate of 510.7 million bushels.
As of March 16, 2006, exports totaled about 671 million bushels, 200
million less than on the same day last year. Only Taiwan and Mexico have
imported more U.S. soybeans this year than were imported last year.
"Shipments to China, which have accounted for 46 percent of all U.S.
exports, are running nearly 22 percent behind the pace of a year ago,"
Good. "Unshipped sales of U.S. soybeans to all destinations on March 9,
2006 totaled only 98.3 million bushels, compared to 119 million on the
date last year.
"Only China has larger sales on the books than at this time last year.
total, however, is only 29 million bushels. With a record-large South
American harvest under way, U.S. exports may struggle to reach 900
bushels by August 31, 2006."
The domestic crush of soybeans so far this year has exceeded the early
forecast. The projection in September 2005 was for a marketing year
of 1.685 billion bushels, 11 million less than the crush of the previous
year. The March 2006 forecast was at 1.72 billion bushels, 1.4 percent
larger than last year's crush.
"The cumulative crush through the first five months of the marketing
was 2.2 percent larger than that of a year ago," said Good.
however, are that the crush slowed in February. The larger-than-expected
crush to date has been fueled by slightly larger soybean meal exports
forecast at the beginning of the year and a slightly lower meal content
the 2005 crop."
Soybean oil consumption is currently expected to be 19.125 billion
compared to the September 2005 forecast of 19.15 billion pounds. The
export market for U.S. soybean oil along with the record high oil
of the 2005 crop is expected to result in year-ending U.S. oil stocks of
2.679 billion pounds, only slightly below the record year-ending
of 2.877 billion pounds in 2000-01.
Good noted that the USDA will release the estimate of March 1
of U.S. soybeans on March 31.
"If seed, feed, and residual use of soybeans is following the pattern
established during the first quarter of the marketing year, consumption
U.S. soybeans during the second quarter of the marketing year should
been near 827 million bushels, about 98 million less than use during the
same quarter last year," said Good.
"March 1 stocks of soybeans, then, should have been near 1.675 billion
bushels, 294 million more than the inventory of a year ago and 218
above the previous record inventory for that date in 1999."
The USDA will also release the annual Prospective Plantings report on
31. That report is expected to show a significant increase in intentions
for soybeans compared to last year's planted acreage of 72.142 million
acres. Planted acreage in 2005 was 3.066 million less than planted in
and 1.768 million less than intended in March 2005.
"The decline in 2005 was spread across all regions, but the largest
decline--1.55 million acres--was in the western Corn Belt," said Good.
"Plantings declined by 400,000 acres in Minnesota and 800,000 acres in
North Dakota. Combined acreage in those two states was 700,000 less than
March intentions, reflecting a wet spring and a large area of prevented
Expectations for 2006 U.S. soybean acreage appear to be centering on an
increase of about two million acres, to a total of 74.1 million.
"At that level of planting, harvested acreage would likely be near 73
million," he noted. "U.S. average yields have been record large in the
two years, at 42.2 and 43.3 bushels, respectively. The National Weather
Service forecast through June 2006 suggests no significant deviation
normal weather conditions in any production area.
"A yield of 42.8 bushels in 2006, then, would produce a crop of 3.124
billion bushels, equal to the record crop of 2004 and 38 million larger
than the 2005 crop."
While consumption of U.S. soybeans during the 2006-07 marketing year
likely be larger than the 2.782 billion projected for this year, a crop
3.124 billion would still lead to another buildup of U.S. soybean
perhaps to near 670 million bushels by Sept. 1, 2007, Good added.
"Stocks at 670 million bushels would project to a 2006-07 marketing year
average farm price near $5.30, even if strong speculative demand for
soybeans continues," Good said. "Without that speculative demand, prices
would be much lower.
"The futures market is currently reflecting a 2006-07 marketing year
price near $6."
Expectations for an increase in soybean acreage in 2006 are driven by the cost advantage of soybeans over competing crops like corn, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.