All eyes on USDA data
The bean market put in a volatile round on trading Friday. What looked like fund liquidation pressed the market sharply lower early in the session. When the fund liquidation ended, the market was able to recover most of the day’s losses.
For the week, the market settle 14 ½ higher.
Next week will be a short trading week due to the markets being closed for Good Friday. The much anticipated quarterly grain stocks and planting report will be released on Thursday at 11:00 Chicago time.
Allendale is anticipating soybean plantings at new record of 78.324 million acres. Last year the U.S. planted 77.198 million acres. Quarterly soybean stocks on March 1 imply a 1.058 billion-bushel second quarter usage. That would be largest usage in three years for that quarter. What this means is we have to slow soybean usage to a grind very soon in order to have enough stocks at the end of the year. First half soybean usage was 18% over last year.
To meet USDA’s end of year ending stocks target of 125 million bushels, second half usage most drop 35% bellows last year’s second half consumption. Bloomberg’s average guess for the quarter stocks is 948 million bushels. The range of estimates is from 900 to 1059. Bloomberg’s average guess for planted acres is 78.351 million acres with the range at 77.0 to 80.0 million acres.
Even though yesterday’s exports were not the best, we are creeping ever closer to the USDA target. USDA has a goal of 1.345 billion exported soybeans. On average, 34 million of what is sold is cancelled and converted to a new crop sale. That means our sales target is 1.379 billion. We have already sold 1.308 of that. No, we have not met USDA’s goal. However, from now until the end of August, we only need to sell an additional 71 million bushels. That should be pretty easy since it is only 32% of normal.