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Bean Markets Begin & End on a Weak Note
The bean market ended the holiday shortened trade week like it began, on a weak note as the market was under pressure for most of the session. Many in the trade thought that we could see some end of the week profit taking by the bears. That was not to be had as a good weather forecast seemed to have the market bears adding to shorts instead of booking profit.
This is a gamble as there tends to be lot of volatility coming out of the Independence Day holiday but with this weeks sell-off putting money in their pockets, they seem to be willing to take the risk on. If the weather forecast is the same as it is today coming out of the weekend we would look for the market to sell off Monday.
With the market closing on the week’s lows it does set the market up to gap lower when it does open back up on Monday morning. For the week, the Aug beans ended up down 78 ¼ cents and the Nov contract were down 94 ½ cents. Old crop beans sales came in at positive 40.6 thousand tones today. This puts total commitments at 1.672 billion bushels.
The USDA will be making export projection adjustments next Friday and we would look for them to be raised due to the stellar sales we have seen. With the June 1st stocks coming in bigger than expected, they have room to raise the sales without lowering the ending stocks number.
New crop sales came in at 206 thousand tonnes. The CBOT will not be open tomorrow in observance of Independence Day and will open back up on at 8:30 Monday morning (No Sunday night trade).
The weather forecast Monday morning will have a major impact on the market direction next week. If it stays like it has the past few weeks (warm and wet) we would not be surprised for the market to gap lower on the open. The next downward objective for the November beans is $11.22 the head and shoulder objective then the January low which was at the $10.88 ¼