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Brazil's next crop to jump 19%

10/01/2012 @ 12:10pm

Brazilian agriculture consultancy Celeres on Monday raised its forecast for the country's 2012-13 soybean crop on expectations for more planted acreage.

Celeres estimates Brazil will produce 79.08 million metric tons of soybeans next year, up 1.3% from its previous forecast and 19% more than in 2012.

The firm raised its estimate for total planted area by 1.1% to 27.44 million hectares in 2012-13, an increase of 9.3% from the previous year.

Brazilian farmers are expected to expand soybean acreage in response to high prices for the oilseed following the U.S. drought this year. Planting will start in earnest during the coming weeks, and farmers should harvest most of their soybeans during the first quarter of 2013.

Brazil is expected to surpass the U.S. next year as the world's biggest soybean producer.

"Due to the U.S. crop failure, the scenario for Brazilian soy producers appears very favorable," Celeres said in a weekly report on the soy market. "In function of this window of opportunity, Brazil should supply the firm demand for soy, increasing even more its area designated for production of the oilseed."

In Mato Grosso, Brazil's biggest grains-producing state, the expansion in soybean planting will take place mainly on land currently used to graze cattle. In other states, farmers are expected to plant soybeans on rangeland as well as fields previously used to grow corn, Celeres said.

Since planting is only just beginning and weather factors can drastically change the outlook for soybeans, Celeres is using trends from the past 15 crops to estimate productivity. The firm expects Brazil will harvest 2,877 kilograms of soybeans per hectare in 2012-13.

Write to Paul Kiernan at paul.kiernan@dowjones.com

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2012 11:44 ET (15:44 GMT)

DJ Celeres Raises Forecast For Brazils 2012-13 Soybean Crop->copyright

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