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China's slowdown to hurt ag commodities

04/26/2012 @ 6:59am

China's changing economy is creating conditions for differential demand growth for commodities, with gold and coffee among the key beneficiaries and agricultural commodities the "biggest losers," Barclays Capital said in a research note Thursday.

Demand growth rates for nearly all commodities will slow over the next five years, as gross domestic product growth becomes less commodity-intensive, though "growth in quantity terms for many commodities will stay very high," the bank said.

Gold will likely see rising investment demand. Coffee will also likely benefit strongly from accelerated consumption "as urban dwellers drink more," Barclays said.

Industrial metals likely to slow significantly in demand growth include steel, copper and zinc, which are most vulnerable to slowing construction growth. These metals will likely see declining use intensity, though demand for them will continue to expand, the bank said.

Commodities linked to the automotive sector and renewable energy, including palladium and gasoline, will likely rise most sharply in the next five years, it said.

Agricultural commodities, including soymeal, cotton, pork, wheat, rice, sugar and poultry, will be among the biggest losers amid sharply declining use intensity, "reflecting the fact that average per-capita protein consumption in China is already relatively high," said the Barclays team, led by analyst Kevin Norrish.


-By Chuin-Wei Yap, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 8400 7704; chuin-wei.yap@dowjones.com.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 25, 2012 22:16 ET (02:16 GMT)
DJ China Slowdown To Shift Commodity Use; Gold To Gain -Barclays->copyright

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