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Demand supports soybean prices

Broker Perspective: Beans finished the day higher as we are continuing to see good demand for beans at these levels. The story for beans is continuing to be weather and demand. We saw no announcements of export sales this morning. We had a weather system bring good rains to a lot of the growing area the past few days and this is going to benefit the bean crop. We know we are going to have a tight supply and these rains will stabilize yield. We should expect to see a 1-2% increase on ratings on Monday. There was talk today that some of the low temps we have seen in the northern parts of the belt may have been enough for a light frost on the beans. We have heard of some 30 degree lows in Nebraska, Minnesota, and North Dakota but no damage to the beans. There are no systems moving through in the next 7 days but far west appears they may have a chance at showers but this is not going to hit the heart of the belt so this is going to help the beans find some support. The key areas to watch on the beans is the long term uptrend at 1602 and the 20 day moving average at 1612. We need to look for additional export sales at these levels next week and keep an eye to see if we can get more rain moving through the belt next week. Check Allendale’s website for weather and export updates. Also a reminder that next week is the beginning of the Allendale crop survey so anyone who hasn’t been in the fields assessing the crops please take a lot as this is a farmer based survey so we need you to give us a hand.

It Is a Lot of Work But Worth It: True farmer based surveys offer two important strengths over other yield estimation methods. 1) It is the only way to get true coverage of every geographic region in each state. Separate yield estimates can be made for each of USDA’s nine crop districts in the state. These then compute out a whole-state estimate. Crop tours are great for headlines on the newswire but cover a relatively small percent of ground within a state. 2) Having direct producer experience in their own fields has been proven to be invaluable. Instead of producers “massaging” the data we have found they will give us more thorough reporting. No one knows the balance between high and low production spots in the field like the people who have seen the yield monitor vary on the combine. Producers, your help is invaluable. 800-262-7538…Rich Nelson

 

Trade Recommendation:

(8/16) Stand aside for the weekend.

This afternoon’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was not too bad. Yes, Placements in July were 10.0% under last year. In fact the number, at 1.922 million head, was only 6% above normal. This will certainly ease quite a few fears about a mountain of cattle Placements hitting the December through March fat cattle market. The July Marketing did come in lower than the average guess, at 0.3% lower than last year, we cannot call it that bearish. Today’s cash cattle trade posted a big $2 gain ($121) on a live basis. We think that tells a greater story about the market’s perception of short term supply than today’s report. We remain supportive to this market…Rich Nelson

 

Working Trade:

(5/17) Sold Oct 120 put 2.25, risk to 2.00, objective 0. Closed 0.72.

(6/13) Sold Oct 118 put 1.50, risk to 1.40, objective 0. Closed 0.45.

(7/10) Sold Feb 126 put 2.62, risk to 4.00, objective 0. Closed 2.20.

(7/27) Sell Feb 126 put 2.30, risk to 4.00, objective 0. Closed 2.20.

 

 

Rich Nelson 

Chief Strategist 

Allendale Inc. 

4506 Prime Parkway 

McHenry, IL 60050 

815-578-6161 

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