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The Market's Weather, Yield Estimate Focus Sharpens

Jeff Caldwell Updated: 08/25/2014 @ 1:15pm Agricultural content creator and marketer.

Another week's flown by, flying again at a lower altitude than a week ago, with corn and soybean prices sliding through the week before finding some signs of life toward the close on Friday.

The week was one of a lot of speculation about what exactly these crops -- ones many are calling bin-busters because of the positive crop weather through much of the summer to this point -- will look like once the combines start to roll.

"There is no bad corn in the Corn Belt, which will raise the national averages. Minnesota is below the three-year average, but it is still above a 170-bushel national average. The huge once-in-a-lifetime yields more than mask the Nebraska and South Dakota averages," one farmer said in Marketing Talk this week.

There are a couple of wrenches that could work their way into the potential bin-busting situation this fall, though: First, some specialists said this week that storing this fall's crop -- if it's indeed as large as many expect -- could be a challenge, and it could entail some marketing outside of the optimal time frames. Then there's the topic that always seems to work its way into the yield conversation about this time of the growing season: Frost.

"There is one event that could change the fortunes of the corn market in a big way – an early freeze. For many in the northern tier states, a normal freeze could create quality issues as well as reduced yields. 2014 holds big promise of a record corn crop, and this has been reflected in lower prices," Agriculture.com market analyst Bryan Doherty said Friday. "However, the crops are not in the bin yet, and an early frost could send prices skyrocketing."

In the meantime, the grains continue to trend lower, with growing focus on weather, namely rainfall, moving toward the final days of August. And, with more crop tours and yield projections popping up around the countryside, look for the spotlight to shine brightly on any yield estimate . . . because it's likely traders in Chicago will be doing the same, then pulling the trigger on trades that will continue to move these markets higher or lower. If those yield guesses continue to come in on the high side, look for more movement in the latter direction once trading resumes next week.

What If Fall Comes Early?

Published: 8/22/2014

There is one event that could change the fortunes of the corn market in a big way – an early freeze. 2014 holds big promise of a record corn crop, and this has been reflected in lower prices. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

Floor Talk - August 22

Published: 8/22/2014

Again, I'm slowly but surely learning about the markets, so post your questions and I'll try to track down answers for you. At 7:29 Early calls: Corn is looking 0-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Crude Oil = $.33 per barrel lower to $93.63. Wall Street = ...

Revised Iowa Corn Yield Estimates

Published: 8/22/2014

"The revised yield forecasted is based off current weather up to August 15 and historical weather thereafter. For Iowa, the median forecasted yields of the six locations ranged from -4% to 42% of the long-term average yield potential (Table 1). " http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2014/0821licht.htm.

Houston, we have photos

Published: 8/21/2014

Rice elevator/dryer used by farmers until 60's - 14 mi west of downtown on I-10 - now, the city sprawls out another 15 mi west. - photos of 2 different oaks of the same subspecies turning color - they're not dying - I saw 2 more like it today w/ differing degrees of color.

no bad yields seen on the pofarm tour

Published: 8/21/2014

indiana.......185 nebraska....163 illinois.......196 minnesota.....170 iowa.......178 ohio.....182 south dakota.......152 There is no bad corn in the corn belt which will raise the national averages. The huge once in a lifetime yields more then mask the nebraska and south dakota averages. I don't have the acre breakdown to average out the results, that will be tomorrow.

Fairmont MN Soybeans $12.98

Published: 8/21/2014

I got all excited and sold my last load for $12.29 last week. Was at a consignment auction yesterday and bought a shiny piece of painted metal that had been on the July internet pricing of a local dealer for $32000 cash. my bid was $14500.....guess we are seeing a little deflation in farm country for a change.

Crop Guesses & Economic Messes: What to Know This Week

Published: 8/21/2014

This week, there's been a major focus on crop yield potential and whether or not the crops will wind up breaking the records many see as within reach. Some say yields could be through the roof, while others are more skeptical. "Yields will be off at least 10%," one farmer said this week.

Following the PFT

Published: 8/20/2014

Nov beans should drop quite quickly down to the next support shelf of 9,80.   Be prepared with hedges or shine up your storage bins for fall.

New Tool Lets You Conduct Your Own Soybean Crop Tour

Published: 8/20/2014

Crop tours and yield estimates are all the rage this time of year, with the corn and soybean crops rounding the corner toward harvest, one many say could yield record crop output. "You can start making soybean yield estimates as soon as end of the R4 stage, full pod, or at the onset of the R5 ...

Grain Drying Issues for 2014

Published: 8/19/2014

Grain prices are down, yields are expected to be at a record level, and, for the first time in several years, you may store grain for a longer period of time as part of your marketing strategy. In addition, more farmers are holding grain above 15% moisture content and blending on the farm, says Gary Woodruff, GSI.

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