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More USDA fireworks?

The USDA will issue its monthly reports next Thursday.  There will be some interesting and new data in these reports.  First, there will be a survey-based estimate of the winter wheat crop.  Then, there will be lots of new supply/demand data to wade through.  Sharp price moves are definitely possible. 

The wheat crop estimate should be very large, if the current Kansas crop tour is any predictor.  Their estimate for the Kansas crop is apparently 404 million bushels.  Last year, the crop was 278 million bushels.  Current economics also suggest quite a bit of this wheat will be fed, relieving pressure on old-crop corn. 

For the first time since the February Outlook Conference, USDA analysts will compile US new crop 2012-2013 tables.  These tables will use the March 31st acreage and probably some sort of trend yield. 

There will also be 2012-2013 world supply/demand tables for the first time.   

In the supply/demand reports, the USDA will do the usual updates and tweaks, which could be especially interesting for US and world soybeans.  It will be fascinating to see how the incredible shrinking South American soybean crop is handled (today’s latest Argentine soy crop estimate, from the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, was only 41 mmt).  US export demand and crush could be increased for both old crop and new crop.

For corn, the expectation is for a large crop and a large carryout (around 1.6 billion bushels).  The biggest potential change since February will be exports.  Market participants will also be interested to see the corn export numbers to get a feel for what the USDA thinks about Chinese demand.      

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