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Soybean yield models soar to record high

Ray Grabanski 08/20/2013 @ 10:10am President, Progressive Ag www.progressiveag.com

The 2013 crop continues to improve in yield potential, with the soybean crops soaring to a new record high this week at 45.13 bushels/acre in spite of a 2% decline in crop conditions (to 62% G/E).  This is in sharp contrast to the ill-advised USDA report, which lowered soybean yield projections to only 42.6 bushels/acre. Pro Ag yield models suggest that the chances of a yield at only 42.6 bushels/acre are less than 5%, about the same odds of a 47.7 bushel/acre yield, which would shatter previous records by a lot! Even the Pro Farmer tour (which is typically bullish and smaller than actual yields) will find the crop is much better than current USDA projections, and also much better than last year's devastating drought-affected crop.  

The Pro Ag corn yield model did decline slightly, down 0.7 bu/acre to 164 bushels/acre, still tied for a record large yield and well above USDA's ill-advised 154.4 bushels/acre crop projection (which lowered the yield potential in August by 2.2 bushels). Clearly, the USDA is anticipating a poor end to the 2013 crop (they must be forecasting an early frost to keep yields this low). And fortunately for the crop, we now have above-average temperatures forecast for the coming two weeks that should advance the crop, and keep frost at bay for now.  Overall, if we have a late frost, the yield of corn could shatter the old record of 164 bushels/acre. Pro Ag yield models suggest that there is as good a chance of a 174 bushel/acre crop as there is of USDA's low projection of 154 bushels/acre. The South is looking at a mammoth large crop, with cool temps all year that make Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas look like the big I states of the Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana) in 2013.  

Pro Ag also notes that HRS wheat yields are also very good so far in the harvest, with farmers reported near-record or record-large yields in Minnesota and North Dakota, where harvest is now in full swing (18% harvested vs. 38% normally at this time). HRS wheat conditions were steady at 66% G/E, well above last year when yields were also large relative to normal. This is another banner year for HRS wheat producers, who are having another good crop year and excellent harvest weather (warm and dry). Barley harvest is also 35%, only 1% behind the normal 36%.  With warm and dry weather forecast the next two weeks, the harvest should be nearly complete in record fast time! We note that barley conditions are 65% G/E, down only 1% from last week and vs. only 60% last year (which was an excellent crop).  

Pro Ag notes that most other crops are also at very high levels of ratings, with cotton up 3% this week to 46% G/E, well above last year's 41% rating.

Crop progress does show a crop behind normal development, but that just means that the warm/dry weather now forecast (which is normally bullish) will help the crop mature (especially corn!) before the first frost date. Frost is the greatest threat now to the corn crop, which is mostly made in July so that dry weather should have minimal impact on yields now. Corn silking is 97% vs. 99% normally, with 52% dough vs. 65% normally and 11% dented vs. 30% normally. Soybean blooming is 92% vs. 96% normally and 72% podding vs. 81% normally. So we are about one week behind normal development. The forecast of warm weather should solve some of that problem by helping the crop mature while keeping frost at bay.

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08/21/2013 @ 7:04am Wow like I have said before,some of these people that right these articles and reports for the cbot are complete idiots.

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08/20/2013 @ 4:59pm Oh for Gods sake. Is this guy nuts?? I just returned from an 8 day vacation up around the great lakes and Canada. In the time I was gone my corn has tipped back a half an inch already and that was in just 8 days. The crop in Wisconsin looks really tough, on both corn and soybeans. Didnt really see anything descent til we hit far southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa. This guy obviously has a postion in the market where he needs them to tank. The crops did look pretty good in northern Illinois Ohio and Indiana but you cant replace 3.5 million unplanted acres.

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08/20/2013 @ 3:00pm I JUST returned from visiting a export load out grean terminal in NEW ORLEANS there were farmers from the heart of the corn belt Iowa Illinois .....over dinner we discussed our crop possible yields and general crop conditions when asked about bean yields more than once everyone agreed first we must have pods 2 to 7 pods per plant wont yield 40+ bushels per acre .......I GET a real chuckle about these articles makes me wonder if they put their money where their mouth is DO THESE PEOPLE HAVE POSITIONS ON THE BOARD AND ARE REALLY TRYING TO BUST THE MARKET...... WHY don't they leave their ivory air conditioned tower and go out and look for themselver instead of making statements they cant back up .....

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Ain't gonna happen 08/20/2013 @ 12:32pm Might have beat USDA's soybean #'s with a general rain across the heart of the cornbelt last week. Now need one this week to hit it and that isn't happening either. At least a week before such an occurrence develops, at which point we're looking at holding something a bit under. And it gets worse beyond that point. Doubt that the late dryness has hurt overall corn yields that badly but it certainly has soys, as it always does.

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Credibility=GONE 08/20/2013 @ 12:16pm Are you nuts? Late planting, drought conditions in much of the western cornbelt, very real risk of frost, weed and pest problems-and you people are predicting far above record yields? I hope this doesn't find it into the hands of the super gullible people out there. They will be waiting for super cheap soybeans as they skyrocket in price. Even super duper extra wonderful yields out east won't offset the p-poor conditions many of us are seeing. I didn't see any mention of prevented planting acres, either. I have a feeling that many of the anticipated double crop beans are still in the seed bag, many growers felt there was no point planting into dust. "That dog don't hunt."

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